Why are some young people attracted to gangs and what are some evidence-based solutions?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathryn Benier, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Monash University

Olegs Jonins/Unsplash

Reports that Victoria Police are issuing anti-association orders to “youth gang members” has sparked fresh debate about how to best deal with youth gang violence in Australia.

These orders have previously been used to reduce the presence of outlaw motorcycle “bikies” and are an attempt to prevent prospective harm.

While such measures may temporarily address public calls for tougher crime control, there have been significant criticisms of association laws in Australia and internationally.

Instead, we need to understand why young people gravitate to gangs, and consider evidence-based early-intervention solutions.

What do the stats suggest?

The number of young offenders in Australia is decreasing.

However, in Victoria, the number of offences committed by youth (aged 10–17 years) has risen in recent months.

Media and political discourses have consistently portrayed young people, and particularly migrant young people, as being responsible for anti-social, delinquent and criminal behaviour.

This fuels public perceptions that young people are out of control, threatening, violent and dangerous. Data from Victoria Police indicate young people account for just 13% of all offenders, yet media coverage of crime seems to focus mainly on youths.




Read more:
Is Australia becoming a more violent country?


Youth crime does occur and we recognise that victims experience significant trauma and long-lasting harms.

But the over-use and misapplication of the “gang” label by the media and politicians sometimes conflates friendship groups with youth gangs.

There are documented dangers of labelling all youth groups of friends as gangs.

A youth gang can be defined as:

Any durable, street-oriented youth group whose involvement in illegal activity is part of its group identity.

Gangs are often a group of delinquent friends, perhaps drawn together by their shared attitudes and propensity for delinquency.

In Australia, gangs rarely go out to recruit members as is sometimes seen in the United States or Central America. This is because Australia has, for the most part, escaped the transnational street gang presence that drives youth recruiting in other countries.

The risk factors of gang involvement

After the murders of two boys, aged 15 and 12, in Melbourne’s outer west last September, Victoria Police Detective Inspector Graham Banks said:

We need to get to the root cause of why these people are joining gangs and to make it a situation where they don’t want to be involved in that sort of behaviour.

There is no single reason for youth offending. Instead, multiple areas of a young person’s life come together to influence their behaviour: their own beliefs and attitudes, peer group, family, school and community.

Although the relative importance of each category changes across childhood and adolescence, a young person’s risk of violence, offending, or gang membership increases as the number of risk factors rises.

Individual risk factors include low self-control, low empathy, antisocial beliefs and attitudes, substance use, or having been victimised themselves.

Despite media portrayals to the contrary, ethnicity or migration background has not been shown to be a risk factor for violence, offending, or gang membership.

Peers are one of the strongest influences on gang involvement, with young people more likely to offend if their peers are delinquent.

In the absence of a legitimate pathway to social capital, youth gangs can provide a sense of belonging and social identity for disenfranchised young people.

Family risk factors include lack of parental supervision and abusive or neglectful family environments.

Risk factors at school include truancy, low grades, feeling unsafe at school and lack of attachment to school.

Finally, at the community level, we see the impact of risk factors such as socioeconomic disadvantage, low social cohesion and high levels of crime in the neighbourhood.

It is important to remember that although these interconnecting risk factors can increase the risk of a young person offending, they do not automatically cause offending.

If a young person has good conflict resolution skills, positive friendships, strong family relationships and opportunities for education and employment, it is likely their risk of offending is lower.

What are some possible solutions?

Current solutions proposed by the Victorian government include machete bans and tougher bail laws.

Yet evidence shows harsher bail laws do not have the desired deterrent effect. They also consistently and disproportionately affect those of a lower socio-economic status.

People on bail have not been found guilty – so removing bail is removing the presumption of innocence.

Queensland’s “adult crime, adult time” policy – which lists 33 offences for which children can receive the same penalty as an adult – has also faced scrutiny for perpetuating harm.

Financially, tough bail and sentencing laws cause unintended consequences that actually cost governments more by failing to break cycles of incarceration.

Violence and gang membership can emerge from a complex interplay of risks across childhood and adolescence. These are unlikely to be shifted by legislation.

Instead, best practice suggests a need to work with young people on early intervention and ideally prevention.

Young people at risk need mentoring, active school engagement and increased employment opportunities. Their families and communities need support.

Supports such as these do exist, including state government programs and organisations such as Mission Australia. These often have good results but are usually underfunded.

Sustainable reductions in youth violence and gang involvement will only be achieved by adequately funding and expanding evidence-based early intervention and prevention programs that address the broader social and developmental needs of young people.

Kathryn Benier has received funding from Department of Health and Human Services (Victoria), Department of Justice and Regulation (Victoria), Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS), Attorney-General’s Department (Australia), Campbell Collaboration, Department of Homeland Security (USA).

Angela Higginson has received funding from: Australian Research Council; Australian Institute of Criminology; Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS); 3ie; Campbell Collaboration (Dept Homeland Security USA & Public Safety Canada); Mayor’s Office for Policing and Crime UK; College of Policing UK; Dept of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs; Dept of Social Services; Dept of Innovation, Tourism Industry Development and the Commonwealth Games; Australian and New Zealand Association of Oral & Maxillofacial Surgeons.

ref. Why are some young people attracted to gangs and what are some evidence-based solutions? – https://theconversation.com/why-are-some-young-people-attracted-to-gangs-and-what-are-some-evidence-based-solutions-265072

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/why-are-some-young-people-attracted-to-gangs-and-what-are-some-evidence-based-solutions-265072/

ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for January 29, 2026

ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on January 29, 2026.

What the ‘mother of all deals’ between India and the EU means for global trade
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, Adelaide University The “mother of all deals”: that’s how European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the new free trade agreement between the European Union

What the ‘mother of all deals’ between India and the EU means for global trade
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, Adelaide University The “mother of all deals”: that’s how European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the new free trade agreement between the European Union

Eyes of Fire: Gripping tale of adventure, tragedy and testament to environmental activism
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – BookHero Review Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, by David Robie, isn’t only a gripping tale of adventure and tragedy but also a testament to the enduring spirit of environmental activism. It serves as an important reminder of the power

What is extremism, and how do we decide?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keiran Hardy, Associate Professor, Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University As controversy over Australia’s new hate laws continues, last weekend’s so-called March for Australia rallies were the latest in a string of events that have raised the temperature of public debate. It’s hard to generalise about the motivations

United Israel Appeal – Australian charity channels tax free donations direct to IDF soldiers
SPECIAL REPORT: By Stephanie Tran Since 2013, more than $400 million in tax-deductible donations have flowed through an Australian charity, including direct to IDF soldiers. United Israel Appeal (UIA) Australia has remitted $376m to Israel via its global partner Keren Hayesod, according to Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC) financial disclosures. In 2024 alone, UIA

Submarine mountains and long-distance waves stir the deepest parts of the ocean
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Kolbusz, Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, 2019 Southeastern U.S. Deep-sea Exploration When most of us look out at the ocean, we see a mostly flat blue surface stretching to the horizon. It’s easy

Will killing dingoes on K’gari make visitors safer? We think it’s unlikely
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley P. Smith, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, CQUniversity Australia Line Knipst/Pexels, CC BY After the tragic death of Canadian backpacker Piper James on K’gari (Fraser Island) on January 19, a coroner found the 19–year–old had been bitten by dingoes while she was still alive, but the most

Monumental ambitions: the history behind Trump’s triumphal arch
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato Getty Images Donald Trump took time out this week from dramatic events at home and abroad to reveal three new design concepts for his proposed “Independence Arch” in Washington DC. All three renderings resemble the famous

One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is

In his last book, Julian Barnes circles big ideas and reflects on his shortcomings
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Flanery, Chair in Creative Writing, Adelaide University Julian Barnes, author of 14 previous novels, ten volumes of nonfiction, and three collections of short stories under his own name, plus four crime novels under the pseudonym Dan Kavanagh, has announced that his new novel, Departure(s), will be

How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch every day?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brittany Johnson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Caring Futures Institute, Flinders University Peter Cade/Getty Images Most Australian children bring their lunch to school through a “lunchbox system”. But there is a growing push for schools to provide students with lunch. Despite decades of efforts to promote better nutrition, it

Your sense of self is deeply tied to your memory – here’s how
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Rogers, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Edith Cowan University You might say you have a “bad memory” because you don’t remember what cake you had at your last birthday party or the plot of a movie you watched last month. On the other hand, you might precisely

Why is my migraine worse in summer?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lakshini Gunasekera, PhD Candidate in Neurology, Monash University K8/Unsplash For people with migraine, summer can be a double-edged sword. You may be able to relax more, sleep in, enjoy the sunshine, and spend time with family and friends. But other factors – such as glare, heat, and

Fossil fuels are doomed – and Trump can’t save them
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney The past three years have been the world’s hottest on record. In 2025, Earth was 1.44°C warmer than the long-term average, perilously close to breaching the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C. This warming is fuelling

How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch everyday?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brittany Johnson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Caring Futures Institute, Flinders University Peter Cade/Getty Images Most Australian children bring their lunch to school through a “lunchbox system”. But there is a growing push for schools to provide students with lunch. Despite decades of efforts to promote better nutrition, it

Antihero Marty Supreme is sociopathic in his pursuit of glory. Why do we want him to win?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oscar Bloomfield, PhD Candidate in Film Studies, Deakin University A24 Marty Supreme is a frenetic tale inspired by Marty Reisman, the charismatic American table tennis champion of the 1950s. Charged by Timothée Chalamet’s electric lead performance – alongside a stellar supporting cast (including Gwyneth Paltrow), and director

Pacific women scholars call for ‘radical shift’ in global health systems
By Khalia Strong of PMN News A new paper by women scholars warns colonial power structures are still shaping health systems across the Pacific region. They are calling for a radical shift in global health leadership and decision-making. The call comes from a new paper published this month in The Lancet Regional Health – Western

PSNA seeks urgent police talks after ‘rock through window’ attack on Palestine supporters
Asia Pacific Report The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) has asked for an urgent meeting with Police Commissioner Richard Chambers and is calling for “cohesive action” over escalating attacks by Israel supporters against Palestinians and human rights activists. The network said in a statement a rock had been hurled through the window of New Plymouth

View from The Hill: Nationals rebel stirs the pot but Littleproud is dug in
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra A little-known Nationals MP, Queenslander Colin Boyce, who declared on Wednesday he will move for a spill of the party’s leadership, has tossed a grenade but David Littleproud appears firmly dug in. Littleproud’s breaking of the Coalition has had a

Politics with Michelle Grattan: Jonno Duniam on the ‘frenzy’ over hate speech laws and the Coalition split
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Last week, the Coalition fell apart for the second time since the last federal election – which was just eight months ago. Both the Liberals and Nationals are in crisis. Sussan Ley’s leadership of the Opposition now appears to be

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/er-report-a-roundup-of-significant-articles-on-eveningreport-nz-for-january-29-2026/

What the ‘mother of all deals’ between India and the EU means for global trade

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, Adelaide University

The “mother of all deals”: that’s how European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the new free trade agreement between the European Union and India, announced on Tuesday after about two decades of negotiations.

The deal will affect a combined population of 2 billion people across economies representing about a quarter of global GDP.

Speaking in New Delhi, von der Leyen characterised the agreement as a “tale of two giants” who “choose partnership, in a true win-win fashion”.

So, what have both sides agreed to – and why does it matter so much for global trade?

What has been agreed

Under this agreement, tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods exported to India will be eliminated or reduced. This will reportedly mean savings of approximately €4 billion (about A$6.8 billion) annually in customs duties on European products.

The automotive sector is the big winner. European carmakers – including Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Renault – will see tariffs on their vehicles gradually reduced from the current punitive rate of 110% to as little as 10%.

The reduced tariffs will apply to an annual quota of 250,000 vehicles, which is six times larger than the quota the UK received in its deal with India.

To protect India’s domestic manufacturers, European cars priced below €15,000 (A$25,500) will face higher tariffs, while electric vehicles get a five-year grace period.

India will almost entirely eliminate tariffs on machinery (which previously faced rates up to 44%), chemicals (22%) and pharmaceuticals (11%).

Wine is particularly notable – tariffs are being slashed from 150% to between 20–30% for medium and premium varieties. Spirits face cuts from 150% to 40%.

In return, the EU is also opening up its market. It will reduce tariffs on 99.5% of goods imported from India. EU tariffs on Indian marine products (such as shrimp), leather goods, textiles, handicrafts, gems and jewellery, plastics and toys will be eliminated.

These are labour-intensive sectors where India has genuine competitive advantage. Indian exporters in marine products, textiles and gems have faced tough conditions in recent years, partly due to US tariff pressures. That makes this EU access particularly valuable.

What’s been left out

This deal, while ambitious by India standards, has limits. It explicitly excludes deeper policy harmonisation on several fronts. Perhaps most significantly, the deal doesn’t include comprehensive provisions on labour rights, environmental standards or climate commitments.

While there are references to carbon border adjustment mechanisms (by which the EU imposes its domestic carbon price on imports into their common market), these likely fall short of enforceable environmental standards increasingly common in EU deals.

And the deal keeps protections for sensitive sectors in Europe: the EU maintains tariffs on beef, chicken, dairy, rice and sugar. Consumers in Delhi might enjoy cheaper European cars, while Europe’s farmers are protected from competition.

India’s seafood exporters stand to benefit from the deal.
Elke Scholiers/Getty

Why now?

Three forces converged to make this deal happen. First, a growing need to diversify from traditional partners amid economic uncertainty.

Second, the Donald Trump factor. Both the EU and India currently face significant US tariffs: India faces a 50% tariff on goods, while the EU faces headline tariffs of 15% (and recently avoided more in Trump’s threats over Greenland). This deal provides an alternative market for both sides.

And third, there’s what economists call “trade diversion” – notably, when Chinese products are diverted to other markets after the US closes its doors to them.

Both the EU and India want to avoid becoming dumping grounds for products that would normally go to the American market.

A dealmaking spree

The EU has been on something of a dealmaking spree recently. Earlier this month, it signed an agreement with Mercosur, a South American trade bloc.

That deal, however, has hit complications. On January 21, the European Parliament voted to refer it to the EU Court of Justice for legal review, which could delay ratification.

This creates a cautionary tale for the India deal. The legal uncertainty around Mercosur shows how well-intentioned trade deals can face obstacles.

The EU also finalised negotiations with Indonesia in September; EU–Indonesia trade was valued at €27 billion in 2024 (about A$46 billion).

For India, this deal with the EU is considerably bigger than recent agreements with New Zealand, Oman and the UK. It positions India as a diversified trading nation pursuing multiple partnerships.

However, the EU–India trade deal should be understood not as a purely commercial breakthrough, but also as a strategic signal — aimed primarily at the US.

In effect, it communicates that even close allies will actively seek alternative economic partners when faced with the threat of economic coercion or politicised trade pressure.

This interpretation is reinforced by both the deal’s timing and how it was announced. The announcement came even though key details still need to be negotiated and there remains some distance to go before final ratification.

That suggests the immediate objective was to deliver a message: the EU has options, and it will use them.

What does this mean for Australia and India?

For Australians, this deal matters more than you might think. Australia already has the Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement, which came into force in late 2022.

Australia has eliminated tariffs on all Indian exports, while India has removed duties on 90% of Australian goods by value, rising from an original commitment of 85%.

This EU-India deal should provide impetus for Australia and India to finalise their more comprehensive Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, under negotiation since 2023.

The 11th round of negotiations took place in August, covering goods, services, digital trade, rules of origin, and – importantly – labour and environmental standards.

The EU deal suggests India is willing to engage seriously on tariff liberalisation. However, it remains to be seen whether that appetite will transfer to the newer issues increasingly central to global trade, notably those Australia is now trying to secure with Indian negotiators.

Chasing an Australia-EU deal

Australia should take heart from the EU’s success in building alternative trading relationships.

This should encourage negotiators still pursuing an EU–Australia free trade agreement, negotiations for which were renewed last June after collapsing in 2023.

These deals signal something important about the global trading system: countries are adapting to American protectionism not by becoming protectionist themselves, but by deepening partnerships with each other.

The world’s democracies are saying they want to trade, invest, and cooperate on rules-based terms.

Nathan Howard Gray receives funding from Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

Mandar Oak and Peter Draper do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. What the ‘mother of all deals’ between India and the EU means for global trade – https://theconversation.com/what-the-mother-of-all-deals-between-india-and-the-eu-means-for-global-trade-274515

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/what-the-mother-of-all-deals-between-india-and-the-eu-means-for-global-trade-274515/

Eyes of Fire: Gripping tale of adventure, tragedy and testament to environmental activism

Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific.

BookHero Review

Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, by David Robie, isn’t only a gripping tale of adventure and tragedy but also a testament to the enduring spirit of environmental activism. It serves as an important reminder of the power of collective action and the indomitable human spirit in the face of adversity.’

This book is a compelling narrative that delves into a poignant moment in history and its lasting repercussions. Set against the backdrop of Pacific activism, the book meticulously chronicles the ill-fated journey of the Greenpeace vessel, the Rainbow Warrior, in a vividly detailed account that captures the tension and ideals of environmental advocacy.

The story unfolds as the Rainbow Warrior embarks on a critical mission to protest nuclear testing in the Pacific. The ship’s crew, a resolute group of environmental activists, intends to disrupt nuclear tests that threaten to devastate the delicate ecology of the region. Traversing the vast and often perilous waters of the Pacific, the campaigners demonstrate unwavering commitment to their cause.

Traversing the vast and often perilous waters of the Pacific, the campaigners demonstrate unwavering commitment to their cause.

However, their journey turns tragic on the night of 10 July 1985, when French secret agents carry out a covert sabotage operation in Auckland Harbour, New Zealand, bombing the ship in a stunning act of violence that reverberates globally.

David Robie, a veteran journalist and witness to the events, offers an insightful account filled with his personal experiences and observations. Through his lens, readers gain a comprehensive understanding of the geopolitical dynamics at play and the fierce dedication of those aboard the vessel.

[embedded content]
40 years on: The Rainbow Warrior, the bombing and French colonial culture in Pacific – David Robie talks to the Fabian Society

Dr Robie incorporates a deeply human perspective, portraying the hope, courage, and grief that accompany such a devastating loss.

The tragedy claimed the life of Fernando Pereira, a courageous Portuguese-born photographer who tragically perished in the attack, igniting international outrage and drawing widespread attention to both the cause of environmental protection and the political tensions underlying the act of sabotage.

Dr Robie’s narrative goes beyond the immediate incident, reflecting on the far-reaching consequences for Greenpeace and the environmental movement at large.

Following the attack, the remnants of the Rainbow Warrior were repurposed into a living reef in a New Zealand bay in 1987, a symbol of resilience and renewal. Subsequently, Rainbow Warrior II was commissioned, and later still, Rainbow Warrior III, carrying on the legacy of their predecessor in the fight for environmental justice.

The prologue in the 2025th edition is by former Prime Minister Helen Clark and the foreword by former Greenpeace International co-executive director Bunny McDiarmid. This edition has major new sections on climate crisis and updates.

Original 1985 Rongelap mission Rainbow Warrior crew members Bunny McDiarmid and Henk Haazen return to the Marshall Islands in March 2025.

This article was first published on Café Pacific.

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/eyes-of-fire-gripping-tale-of-adventure-tragedy-and-testament-to-environmental-activism/

What is extremism, and how do we decide?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Keiran Hardy, Associate Professor, Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University

As controversy over Australia’s new hate laws continues, last weekend’s so-called March for Australia rallies were the latest in a string of events that have raised the temperature of public debate.

It’s hard to generalise about the motivations of those involved. Politicians representing Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party attended. So did members of the wider community who oppose immigration policies and a smaller number of more extreme agitators.

Some people crossed a line into criminal behaviour. One man was charged with inciting racial hatred against Jewish people. Police are investigating another man for throwing a bomb into the crowd at an Invasion Day rally in Perth.

The neo-Nazi group National Socialist Network formally disbanded to avoid the new hate offences passed earlier this month. But links have been uncovered between its former members and rally organisers. It remains to be seen how the authorities will approach far-right groups who continue to operate while skirting the law’s boundaries.

The strong anti-immigration sentiment expressed at these rallies raises complex questions about freedom of speech, rights to political protest and growing threats of extremism.

A fundamental source of these challenges is the difficulty in saying – especially in a democracy that values freedom of speech – when someone crosses the line from legitimate social and political beliefs into “extremism”.

It now seems rare for a day to go by without some mention of extremism in the news. But the meaning of this important word is also rarely explained or interrogated.

So what is extremism really, and how do we decide who and what is extremist?

Extremism: violent or not?

Defining extremism is difficult in part because most counter-terrorism policies target violent extremism.

In its recent counter-terrorism and violent extremism strategy, the Australian government defined violent extremism as:

acts of or support for violence to achieve social, political or legal outcomes or in response to specific political or social grievances.

If someone commits a violent act or supports violence, it’s easier to say they have crossed the line into behaviour worthy of government intervention.

Violent extremism can be a crime, such as advocating terrorism, urging violence or inciting racial hatred. Depending on the seriousness of the conduct and a person’s individual circumstances, though, the authorities might instead recommend a different type of intervention. This could include counselling or other support.

Confusing definitions

If we consider just the “extremism” part of violent extremism, things get much trickier.

The United Kingdom, in its “Prevent” strategy, has long targeted extremism, without requiring a link to violence. Until recently, it favoured a broad definition that said extremism meant actively opposing “fundamental British values”.

This was controversial for its impacts on freedom of speech. It also sparked concerns in schools, universities, hospitals and other institutions. These places are required to monitor for signs of extremism in their students, patients and communities.

Strategy toolkits and training materials explained that Prevent applied to ideologies “beyond the norm”.

This is particularly unhelpful. Who gets to say what are fundamental British values, and what’s normal?

After the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7 2023, the UK government responded to these criticisms and offered a new definition of extremism. It focuses on threats to democracy:

Extremism is the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:

  1. negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or

  2. undermine, overturn or replace the UK’s system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or

  3. intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2).

This definition improves on the previous one, though it blurs the boundaries between non-violent extremism, violent extremism and terrorism.

On the one hand, it could involve a plot to overthrow the UK government or destroy the fundamental rights of a group based on their ethnicity or religious beliefs.




Read more:
Blaming ‘extremists’ for March For Australia rallies lets ‘mainstream’ Australia off the hook


On the other hand, it could mean someone seeking to deny a group’s rights based on hatred and intolerance. That would still be highly problematic, but it would be more in the realm of hate speech and hate crime than a terrorist coup.

Without a link to violence, extremism can be understood as views and behaviours that undermine the health of our democracy, or discriminate against groups based on their race, religion or other attributes, while creating permissive environments for serious harm.

Extremism may still breach civil or criminal laws, including for hate speech. But it would not trigger more serious terrorism offences – or else we would be in the realm of violent extremism.

How do we decide?

By calling something or someone extremist, we are saying the beliefs and behaviours fall outside legitimate contributions to the public sphere. This must mean something more than views we consider to be highly controversial, offensive or generally unpalatable.

Agreeing on this thin dividing line is probably an impossible task. Extremism occupies a liminal space where someone’s beliefs and behaviours do not involve or advocate violence, but there is a strong public sense that they are, nonetheless, undermining the terms of our (increasingly fragile) social contract.

Still, we should not be afraid to call out extremist behaviour where we see it. But we should take into account what the term means and consider whether the behaviour fits the definition.

Then, extremism will not just be another buzzword, but a term with real meaning that can help us all to determine appropriate limits for democratic debate.

Keiran Hardy receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a Discovery Project on conspiracy-fuelled extremism.

ref. What is extremism, and how do we decide? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-extremism-and-how-do-we-decide-274419

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/what-is-extremism-and-how-do-we-decide-274419/

United Israel Appeal – Australian charity channels tax free donations direct to IDF soldiers

SPECIAL REPORT: By Stephanie Tran

Since 2013, more than $400 million in tax-deductible donations have flowed through an Australian charity, including direct to IDF soldiers.

United Israel Appeal (UIA) Australia has remitted $376m to Israel via its global partner Keren Hayesod, according to Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC) financial disclosures.

In 2024 alone, UIA Australia received $50.9 million in tax-deductible donations and sponsorships.

Financial statements from Keren Hayesod, the Israel-based body that receives and distributes UIA funds, show it received A$323 million in global donations in 2024, with 98.5 percent originating overseas.

On that basis, Australian fundraising accounted for roughly 13 percent of Keren Hayesod’s worldwide donation base last year.

United Israel Appeal Australia donations. Source: Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC)

‘Every dollar aligned with Israel’s national priorities’
At the UIA Victoria AGM in November 2025, UIA leadership were explicit about the organisation’s role in Israel. David Slade, president of UIA Victoria, told members:

“We are the only organisation in Australia raising funds for Israel that holds a seat at every table of decision-making authority mandated to rebuild the country from the north to the south.”

“We are proud that every dollar we distribute is aligned with Israel’s national priorities.”

Julian Black, outgoing federal treasurer of UIA, reported that $39.2 million had been sent to Israel nationally, including $14.4 million from Victoria, in the 2025 campaign period to mid-November.

UIA Australia describes its central mission as supporting aliyah, “ascent”, referring to Jewish immigration to Israel, and strengthening Israeli society. They state that they “raise funds within Australia and transfer them directly to Keren Hayesod-UIA”.

Keren Hayesod, founded in 1920, describes itself as the “preeminent worldwide fundraising arm for the people of Israel,” operating in dozens of countries. UIA Australia functions as its Australian partner, channelling hundreds of millions of dollars in tax-deductible donations to the fund.

At the 2025 AGM, Slade said:

“This is not theory. It’s delivery. It’s national in scale, national in scope. It aligns with Israel’s priorities and is executed by our global partners.”

Support for ‘lone immigrant soldiers’
Among the programmes UIA promotes in Australia is assistance for “lone immigrant soldiers”, individuals who migrate to Israel and serve in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) without immediate family support in the country.

Through the “Wings Programme”, UIA partners with the Jewish Agency for Israel to provide grants and assistance to immigrant IDF soldiers. UIA states that they supported 2200 lone immigrant soldiers in 2024.

According to a report compiled by the Knesset, in August 2024, there were 6731 lone soldiers serving in the IDF.

At the same AGM, Slade disclosed that his own son is currently serving in the IDF as a lone soldier, describing himself as “a lifelong Zionist”.

UIA also funds the Net@ programme, which provides technology education for youth. Promotional materials for the programme state that graduates are “strong candidates for elite IDF units”.

Overseas funding networks and settlement links
In 2022, Pastor Larry Huch raised $8 million for Keren Hayesod through his ministry to help “settlements take over produce farms in the West Bank”.

“One of the main Bible prophecies is helping Jews return to the nation of Israel, so we started working with Keren Hayesod with projects such as making aliyah. We help settlements take over produce farms in the West Bank, which is Judea and Samaria,” Pastor Hutch said.

According to an analysis by Canadian human rights organisation Just Peace Advocates, public filings by UIA Canada show that funds linked to the broader Keren Hayesod network have supported organisations assisting IDF veterans and institutions located in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Comparable programme-level detail is not disclosed in Australian ACNC filings, which aggregate remittances to Keren Hayesod.

UIA Australia did not respond to questions regarding whether they have oversight of which initiatives are supported by the funds they provide to Keren Kayesod and whether they engage in due diligence practices to ensure that these programmes comply with ACNC External Conduct Standards and DGR conditions.

A charity operating in a genocide
UIA’s fundraising expansion has occurred during the Gaza genocide and escalating violence across the occupied Palestinian territories.

A January 2026 report by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights found that Israeli laws, policies and practices have created “asphyxiating” conditions for Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

The report stated that there has been an “unprecedented deterioration of the human rights situation” since October 2023, as Israeli government “further expanded the use of unlawful force, arbitrary detention and torture, repression of civil society and undue restrictions on media freedoms, severe movement restrictions, settlement expansion and related violations in the occupied West Bank”.

In his National Press Club address, Chris Sidoti, a commissioner on the UN Commission of Inquiry on Palestine and Israel, stated that in light of the commission’s finding that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza,

“anyone who has served in any arm of the Israeli military in Gaza should be treated as a suspect.”

UIA CEO Yair Miller previously told Michael West Media that “the United Israel Appeal is fully compliant with Australian law”. They did not respond to a follow-up request for comment regarding the matters discussed in this article.

Stephanie Tran is a journalist with a background in both law and journalism. She has worked at The Guardian and as a paralegal, where she assisted Crikey’s defence team in the high-profile defamation case brought by Lachlan Murdoch. Her reporting has been recognised nationally, earning her the 2021 Democracy’s Watchdogs Award for Student Investigative Reporting and a nomination for the 2021 Walkley Student Journalist of the Year Award. This article was first published by Michael West Media  and is republished with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/united-israel-appeal-australian-charity-channels-tax-free-donations-direct-to-idf-soldiers/

Monumental ambitions: the history behind Trump’s triumphal arch

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato

Getty Images

Donald Trump took time out this week from dramatic events at home and abroad to reveal three new design concepts for his proposed “Independence Arch” in Washington DC.

All three renderings resemble the famous Arc de Triomphe in Paris, although one features gilded livery not unlike Trump’s chosen adornments to the Oval Office in the White House.

Commissioned in preparation for the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, the triumphal arch draws on a long history of celebrating military conquest, from Roman emperors to Napoleon Bonaparte.

As such, it aligns seamlessly with Trump’s foreign policy and his stated mission for the United States to control the western hemisphere – as he has dubbed it, the “Donroe Doctrine”.

But as many have been asking, while the design is a copy of an iconic monument, is a personal tribute necessarily the best way to mark the anniversary of America’s break with absolute rule and the British monarchy?

The ‘Arc de Trump’

When Trump first displayed models of the proposed arch last October, a reporter asked him who it was for. Trump replied “Me. It’s going to be beautiful.”

In a December update, the president said the new arch “will be like the one in Paris, but to be honest with you, it blows it away. It blows it away in every way.”

There was one exception, he noted: “The only thing they have is history […] I always say [it’s] the one thing you can’t compete with, but eventually we’ll have that history too.”

The president clearly believes his arch will be part of creating that history. “It’s the only city in the world that’s of great importance that doesn’t have a triumphal arch,” he said of Washington DC.

Set to be located near Arlington National Cemetery and the Lincoln Memorial, the site would put the new structure in a visual conversation with many of the most famous landmarks in the national capital.

This also aligns with other projects that will leave Trump’s mark on the physical fabric of Washington: changes to the White House last year that included paving over the famous Rose Garden, decorating the Oval Office in rococo gold, and demolishing the East Wing for a US$400 million ballroom extension.

The “Arc de Trump” (as it has been branded) is now the “top priority” for Vince Haley, the director of the Domestic Policy Council for the White House.

Triumph and design

The Arc de Triomphe in Paris, located at the top of the Champs-Élysées, was commissioned by Napoleon Bonaparte in 1806 to honour the French imperial army following his victory at the Battle of Austerlitz. It was not finished until 1836, under the reign of King Louis Philippe I.

Architects for the project, Jean-François Thérèse Chalgrin and Jean-Arnaud Raymond, drew on classical arches for inspiration, with Rome’s Arch of Titus (circa 85 CE) as the main source. It was built by Emperor Domitian (51–96 CE), a cruel and ostentatious tyrant who was popular with the people but battled with the Senate and limited its power to make laws.

Domitian commissioned the arch to commemorate the deification of his brother Titus, and his military victory crushing the rebellion in Judea.

Given its inspiration, Trump’s proposed arch doesn’t reference any uniquely American design features. But the neoclassical style recalls earlier monuments that also reference antiquity.

The Washington Monument, for example, is built in the form of an Egyptian obelisk. A four-sided pillar, it tapers as it rises and is topped with a pyramid, a tribute to the sun god Ra.

But it also incorporated an element that was meant to symbolise American technological advancement and innovation – a pyramid cap made of aluminium.

When the obelisk was completed in 1884, aluminium was rare because the process for refining it had not been perfected. The top of the monument was the largest piece of cast aluminium on the planet at that time.

‘Truth and sanity’

Trump’s triumphal arch is likely destined to join a long debate about the merits of public monuments and what they represent.

During the Black Lives Matter movement, many statues of historical figures were removed from public display because they were seen as celebrations of racism and imperialism.

Trump has since restored at least one Confederate statue toppled during that time, and his desire to add a new monument to himself should come as little surprise.

During the Jim Crow era of racial segregation and throughout the civil rights movement, there was a sharp spike in the number of monuments erected to Confederate soldiers and generals.

Just as tearing down those statues was a statement, so is the creation of a new memorial to promote Trump’s positive interpretation of the nation’s past. It is also consistent with his administration’s declared mission of “restoring truth and sanity to American history”.

Maybe the more immediate question is whether the Independence Arch can even be built by Independence Day on July 4, a tall order even for this president. As for its reception, history will have to be the judge.

Garritt C. Van Dyk has received funding from the Getty Research Institute.

ref. Monumental ambitions: the history behind Trump’s triumphal arch – https://theconversation.com/monumental-ambitions-the-history-behind-trumps-triumphal-arch-273567

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/monumental-ambitions-the-history-behind-trumps-triumphal-arch-273567/

Will killing dingoes on K’gari make visitors safer? We think it’s unlikely

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley P. Smith, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, CQUniversity Australia

Line Knipst/Pexels, CC BY

After the tragic death of Canadian backpacker Piper James on K’gari (Fraser Island) on January 19, a coroner found the 19–year–old had been bitten by dingoes while she was still alive, but the most likely cause of death was drowning.

Days later, the Queensland government announced it would cull the entire pack of ten dingoes seen near where Piper’s body was found. Most of those animals have now been killed.

Authorities justified the targeted cull on “public safety” grounds, while also signalling a strong desire to keep tourism moving. Queensland Tourism Minister Andrew Powell reassured tourism operators “the island is open” and urged people to continue to visit.

The cull took place without the knowledge or approval of the Butchulla people, the Traditional Owners of K’Gari. James’ parents also publicly opposed a cull, saying it was “the last thing” their nature-loving daughter would have wanted. There has been backlash from scientific experts, as well as the public.

So, does killing dingoes actually make K’gari safer for people?

The perfect storm

K’gari’s dingoes (called Wongari by the Butchulla) are a population of high conservation and cultural value on this World Heritage–listed sand island. Estimates put their numbers at between 70 and 200.

Huge visitor numbers (about 450,000 per year) to the roughly  1,600 square kilometre island means dingoes and humans share the same beaches and come into contact in ways they generally don’t on the mainland. Most encounters are harmless, even enjoyable. Less than 1% of visitors experience a negative interaction and many tourists visit the island specifically to see the dingoes.

Of course, risk increases when dingoes and people are in close proximity. Dingoes are often deliberately or carelessly rewarded with food scraps or find rubbish, which encourages loitering.

Most injuries caused by dingoes are minor, such as nips, bites and scratches. Serious attacks by dingoes are rare on K’gari and the mainland. Children are most vulnerable given their smaller size.

The Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service has consistently worked to reduce incidents. Their “Be dingo safe” campaign includes education, signs, fenced areas and even “dingo sticks” to deter the animals from approaching. But too often these safety warnings are not heeded. People feed dingoes or leave food in their tents or bags, come too close to dingoes and let kids roam unsupervised.

For an apex predator, dingoes are relatively small and dog-like. To many visitors, they don’t look especially dangerous, and people forget dingoes are wild predators.

A “dingo-safe” storage cage for visitors to secure food and belongings on K’gari.
Bradley Smith, CC BY-ND

Decades of lethal control

Authorities have long relied on lethal control of dingoes on K’gari. Between 2001 and 2013, 110 dingoes were killed. In 2001, after the death of nine-year-old Clinton Gage, 28 were immediately killed. In a typical year, one to two are killed.

Removing up to ten dingoes carries serious costs for a small island population. Genetically, the K’gari population has low diversity and an effective population size of about 25 (meaning only about 25 animals are effectively passing genes on, even though more dingoes exist). Studies have found inbreeding, genetic isolation and declining genetic variation in K’gari dingoes over the past two decades.

High levels of inbreeding may lead to physical deformities, reduced breeding success and an increased risk of local extinction. On an island, there is limited scope for “new” dingoes and their genes to arrive, so every avoidable death is important.

That is why our 2025 population viability analysis was sobering. We found if the number of dingo deaths stays close to natural levels, the population could remain stable. But extra deaths due to mass culls or disease outbreaks expose the animals to higher extinction risk. This makes it more likely the island’s dingoes could die out. In the highest-risk scenarios we modelled (that includes several mass culling events), the risk of extinction becomes substantial in about 50 years. Survival can fall close to zero by 100 years.

A dingo becomes a photo opportunity for tourists on K’gari’s shoreline.
Bradley Smith, CC BY

Culling rarely solves safety problems

Records of dingo incidents on K’gari offer little evidence killing dingoes delivers lasting safety. Our analysis of the “highest severity” incidents reported found the island had an average of 10.7 reports a year from 2001 to 2015. There was no clear downward trend in incidents, even though more than 110 dingoes were destroyed in that period.

What we did find was a predictable seasonal pattern. About 40% of serious incidents took place during breeding season (March to May) and 30% during whelping (June to August). These are periods when dingoes are more active and social dynamics intensify. During breeding, dingoes (especially younger males) may range more widely and test boundaries. During whelping, adults can become more vigilant and take greater foraging risks to meet the demands of pups.

The chance of serious incidents rose and fell with dingo life history and behaviour, as well as what people did around them. Incidents are not explained by visitor numbers alone.

When a dingo approaches people or loiters near them, they can be labelled as “problematic” and are more likely to be culled. But these behaviours aren’t abnormal in a wildlife tourism setting. They are predictable responses to people, food and opportunity. Younger males are often the most persistent around people, but become less exploratory as they mature or disperse.

A dingo rests beside rubbish bins on K’gari. These bins have now been fenced.
Bradley Smith, CC BY-ND

A people problem, not a dingo problem

K’gari’s dingoes are doing what wild predators do, just as sharks and crocodiles do in Australia’s oceans and rivers.

Our safety depends on how we behave in wild places. To reduce risky encounters with wildlife, secure your food and waste, keep your kids close, don’t venture out alone, respect park guidelines and stop giving rewards such as food.

Killing dingoes won’t make K’gari safer. Changing human behaviour and attitudes will.

Bradley Smith is an unpaid director of the Australian Dingo Foundation, a non-profit environmental charity that advocates for dingo conservation. He is also a member of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) dingo working group.

Kylie M. Cairns receives scientific research funding from the Australian Dingo Foundation, the Australia and Pacific Science Foundation, the NSW and ACT state governments and donations from the general public. She is an unpaid director of the Paddy Pallin Foundation and provides scientific advice to the Australian Dingo Foundation and the New Guinea Highland Wild Dog Foundation. She serves as co-coordinator of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) dingo working group.

ref. Will killing dingoes on K’gari make visitors safer? We think it’s unlikely – https://theconversation.com/will-killing-dingoes-on-kgari-make-visitors-safer-we-think-its-unlikely-274429

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/will-killing-dingoes-on-kgari-make-visitors-safer-we-think-its-unlikely-274429/

Submarine mountains and long-distance waves stir the deepest parts of the ocean

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Kolbusz, Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Western Australia

NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, 2019 Southeastern U.S. Deep-sea Exploration

When most of us look out at the ocean, we see a mostly flat blue surface stretching to the horizon. It’s easy to imagine the sea beneath as calm and largely static – a massive, still abyss far removed from everyday experience.

But the ocean is layered, dynamic and constantly moving, from the surface down to the deepest seafloor. While waves, tides and currents near the coast are familiar and accessible, far less is known about what happens several kilometres below, where the ocean meets the seafloor.

Our new research, published in the journal Ocean Science, shows water near the the seafloor is in constant motion, even in the abyssal plains of the Pacific Ocean. This has important consequences for climate, ecosystems and how we understand the ocean as an interconnected system.

Enter the abyss

The central and eastern Pacific Ocean include some of Earth’s largest abyssal regions (places where the sea is more than 3,000 metres deep). Here, most of the seafloor lies four to six kilometres below the surface. It is shaped by vast abyssal plains, fracture zones and seamounts.

It is cold and dark, and the water and ecosystems here are under immense pressure from the ocean above.

Just above the seafloor, no matter the depth, sits a region known as the bottom mixed layer. This part of the ocean is relatively uniform in temperature, salinity and density because it is stirred through contact with the seafloor.

Rather than a thin boundary, this layer can extend from tens to hundreds of metres above the seabed. It plays a crucial role in the movement of heat, nutrients and sediments between the pelagic ocean and the seabed, including the beginning of the slow return of water from the bottom of the ocean toward the surface as part of global ocean circulation.

Observations focused on the bottom mixed layer are rare, but this is beginning to change. Most ocean measurements focus on the upper few kilometres, and deep observations are scarce, expensive and often decades apart.

In the Pacific especially, scientists have long known that cold Antarctic waters flow northward, along topographic features such as the Tonga-Kermadec Ridge and the Izu-Ogasawara and Japan Trenches.

But the finer details of how these waters interact with seafloor features in ways that intermittently stir and reshape the bottom layer of the ocean has remained largely unknown.

Deep sea ecosystems are under immense pressure from the ocean above.
NOAA Photo Library

Investigating the abyss

To investigate the Pacific abyssal ocean, my colleagues and I combined new surface-to-seafloor measurements collected during a trans-Pacific expedition with high-quality repeat data about the physical features of the ocean gathered over the past two decades.

These observations allowed us to examine temperature and pressure all the way down to the seafloor over a wide range of latitudes and longitudes.

We then compared multiple scientific methods for identifying the bottom mixed layer and used machine learning techniques to understand what factors best explain the variations in its thickness.

Rather than being a uniform layer, we found the bottom mixed layer in the abyssal Pacific varies dramatically. In some regions it was less than 100m thick; in others it exceeded 700m.

This variability is not random; it’s controlled by the seafloor depth and the interactions between waves generated by surface tides and rough landscapes on the seabed.

In other words, the deepest ocean is not quietly stagnant as is often imagined. It is continually stirred by remote forces, shaped by seafloor features, and dynamically connected to the rest of the ocean above.

Just as coastal waters are shaped by waves, currents and sediment movement, the abyssal ocean is shaped by its own set of drivers. However, it is operating over larger distances and longer timescales.

Topographic features of the seafloor intermittently stir and reshape the bottom layer of the ocean.
NOAA Photo Library

Connected to the rest of the world

This matters for several reasons.

First, the bottom mixed layer influences how heat is stored and redistributed in the ocean, affecting long-term climate change. Some ocean and climate models still simplify seabed mixing, which can lead to errors in how future climate is projected.

Second, it plays a role in transporting sediment and seabed ecosystems. As interest grows in deep-sea mining and other activities on the high seas, understanding how the seafloor environment changes, and importantly how seafloor disturbances might spread, becomes increasingly important.

Our results highlight how little of the deep ocean we actually observe.

Large areas of the abyssal Pacific remain effectively unsampled, even as international agreements such as the new UN High Seas Treaty seek to manage and protect these regions.

The deep ocean is not a silent, static place. It is active, connected to the oceans above and changing. If we want to make informed decisions about the future of the high seas, we need to understand what’s happening at the very bottom in space and time.

Jessica Kolbusz receives funding from the marine research organisation Inkfish LLC. The funder was not involved in the study design, collection, analysis, interpretation of data, the writing of this article, or the decision to submit it for publication.

ref. Submarine mountains and long-distance waves stir the deepest parts of the ocean – https://theconversation.com/submarine-mountains-and-long-distance-waves-stir-the-deepest-parts-of-the-ocean-274124

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/submarine-mountains-and-long-distance-waves-stir-the-deepest-parts-of-the-ocean-274124/

One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points in DemosAU.

In Morgan, the Coalition and One Nation are tied at 22.5% each, while Essential gives the Coalition a three-point lead. The Freshwater poll was conducted before the Coalition split, and gives the Coalition a nine-point lead.

Two polls have given a Labor versus One Nation two-party estimate. In YouGov, Labor led One Nation by 57–43, compared with a 55–45 Labor lead against the Coalition. This was despite primary votes of 31% Labor, 25% One Nation and 20% Coalition.

An early January Fox & Hedgehog poll gave Labor a 56–44 lead against One Nation, compared with 53–47 against the Coalition, from primary votes of 29% Labor, 25% Coalition and 21% One Nation.

Analyst Kevin Bonham said that in the Senate at the 2025 election, with exhaust removed, nationally Coalition preferences favoured One Nation over Labor by 75.6–24.4, while Greens preferences were stronger for Labor against One Nation than against the Coalition.

As the Senate uses an electronic distribution of preferences, all preference flows can be obtained from the electoral commission’s data. This is not the case for the House of Representatives, where only minor party preference flows between Labor and the Coalition are recorded.

Furthermore, the Coalition has already lost its right-wing supporters to One Nation, so preferences of remaining Coalition voters may be better for Labor.

Compared with late December or early to mid-January issues of the same polls, there have been primary vote gains for Labor, suggesting the Bondi effect is fading. The last issue of Freshwater was in October and the last issue of Essential in early December.

YouGov poll has One Nation second

A national YouGov poll for Sky News, conducted January 20–27 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (up one since an unpublished late December YouGov poll), One Nation 25% (up five), the Coalition 20% (down four), the Greens 12% (down one), independents 6% (steady) and others 6% (down one).

Video included in the poll article has Labor leading the Coalition by 55–45 and One Nation by 57–43, presumably using respondent preferences.

In rural seats, One Nation led the Coalition by 35–21 on primary votes, putting them on track to gain many conservative rural seats from the Coalition.

Anthony Albanese’s net approval was -16 with 55% dissatisfied and 39% satisfied. Sussan Ley’s net approval was -31. Albanese led Ley as better PM by 47–29. On immigration, 64% wanted it decreased, 28% stay about the same and just 8% increased.

On Bondi, 28% thought Albanese had responded very badly, 21% not as well as can be expected, 38% as well as can be expected and 5% very well.

Morgan poll has One Nation and Coalition tied

A national Morgan poll, conducted January 19–25 from a sample of 1,653, gave Labor 30.5% of the primary vote (up two since the January 12–18 Morgan poll), the Coalition 22.5% (down 1.5), One Nation 22.5% (up 1.5), the Greens 13% (down 0.5) and all Others 11.5% (down 1.5).

By respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 56.5–43.5, a three-point gain for Labor. By 2025 election preference flows, Labor led by 54.5–45.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor. No Labor vs One Nation two-party figure was provided.

Essential poll best for Coalition

A national Essential poll, conducted January 20–23 from a sample of 1,022, gave Labor 31% of the primary vote (down three since early December), the Coalition 25% (down one), One Nation 22% (up five), the Greens 9% (down one), all Others 7% (down one) and undecided 6% (up one).

Essential hasn’t updated its two-party chart. A Labor vs Coalition two-party estimate based on 2025 election flows would give Labor about a 51.5–48.5 lead. This is the best poll for the Coalition of these five polls.

Albanese’s net approval slumped 12 points to -14, with 53% disapproving and 39% approving. Ley’s net approval was down eight points to -17. By 56–36, respondents thought Albanese had handled Bondi badly.

DemosAU poll has One Nation second

A national DemosAU poll, conducted January 13–21 from a sample of 1,933, gave Labor 30% of the primary vote (up one since the January 5–6 DemosAU poll), One Nation 24% (up one), the Coalition 21% (down two), the Greens 13% (up one) and all Others 12% (down one).

No two-party estimate was given by DemosAU, but seat estimates gave Labor 87–95 of the 150 House seats, One Nation 29–38, the Liberals 9–17, the Nationals 1–5, the Greens 0–2 and all Others 6–11.

A three-way preferred PM question had Albanese on 39%, Pauline Hanson 26% and Ley 16%. Albanese’s net approval was down two points since early January to -14, while Ley was down seven to -18. Hanson had a -5 net approval.

Freshwater poll

A national Freshwater poll for the News Corp papers, conducted January 16–18 (before the Coalition split) from a sample of 1,050, gave Labor a 53–47 lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since an October Freshwater poll.

Primary votes were 33% Labor (steady), 28% Coalition (down three), 19% One Nation (up nine), 11% Greens (down three) and 9% for all Others (down two). By 2025 election preference flows, Labor would have led by about 52.5–47.5.

Albanese led Ley as preferred PM by 45–32 (48–31 previously). Albanese’s net favourability was down two points to -9, while Ley’s was steady at -5. Hanson’s net favourability was +6, One Nation’s was +4, Barnaby Joyce’s was -8, federal Labor’s was net zero, the federal Liberals were +2, the federal Greens were -16 and Donald Trump was -34.

By 44–26, respondents thought the Australian economy would worsen rather than improve in the next 12 months. On current immigration levels, 65% thought them too high, 27% about right and just 4% too low. However, by 41–37 respondents thought immigration improves Australia’s economy rather than worsens it.

Australia Day questions in federal Resolve poll

I previously covered the mid-January federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers. In further questions, by 68–16 respondents wanted Australia Day kept on January 26 rather than moved to another date.

Support for Australia Day on January 26 has surged since January 2023 (47–39 support). By 66–9, respondents thought Australia Day adds to social cohesion rather than detracts.

NSW Resolve poll: Minns gains but not Labor

The next New South Wales state election is in March 2027. A Resolve poll for The Sydney Morning Herald, conducted with the early December and mid-January federal Resolve polls from a sample of 1,145, gave Labor 37% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 27% (down one), the Greens 10% (steady), independents 11% (down four) and others 15% (up four).

No two-party estimate was given by Resolve, but The Poll Bludger thought Labor led by about 60–40, though this would overstate Labor if One Nation makes up most of the “others”.

Labor Premier Chris Minns’ net likeability surged 11 points since November to +25, his best since May 2023. In late November, Kellie Sloane replaced Mark Speakman as Liberal leader. Sloane’s initial net likeability was +10. Minns led as preferred premier by 40–18 over Sloane (31–19 over Speakman in November).

I previously covered questions on Bondi from the January sample of this poll.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences – https://theconversation.com/one-nation-surges-into-second-place-in-two-polls-but-labor-remains-well-ahead-after-preferences-274104

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/one-nation-surges-into-second-place-in-two-polls-but-labor-remains-well-ahead-after-preferences-274104/

In his last book, Julian Barnes circles big ideas and reflects on his shortcomings

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Flanery, Chair in Creative Writing, Adelaide University

Julian Barnes, author of 14 previous novels, ten volumes of nonfiction, and three collections of short stories under his own name, plus four crime novels under the pseudonym Dan Kavanagh, has announced that his new novel, Departure(s), will be his last. The narrator – who both is and is not Barnes – tells us this directly and the information has accompanied advance notice from his publisher. This kind of framing necessarily invites the reader to judge the book as a capstone to his career.


Review: Departure(s) – Julian Barnes (Jonathan Cape)


For more than four decades, in ways distinct from near contemporaries like Martin Amis and Ian McEwan, Barnes has tried to awaken the English novel from its long fantasy of isolation, reminding it of its relation to European – and particularly French – literature.

For many years, his novel Flaubert’s Parrot (1984) was a foundational work in undergraduate courses in postmodern literature. But it has always felt to me as though this obscured the importance of the intervention Barnes was making.

His close reading of French literature translated formal experiment from the continental into the late-20th century English novel. Doing so, he opened the avant-gardism of anglophone late-modernism once again to the possibilities of a more European sensibility.

Illness and memory

It is no surprise to open Departure(s) and find Barnes employing fragmentation, lists, notes and quasi-philosophical musings, while refusing almost entirely to engage with any narrative structure that might resemble a plot.

There is a story of sorts, and the narrator tells us early on that one will be coming, though it is, he says, a story with no middle. Indeed, the five-part form of Departure(s) bookends and bisects the “story”. There is a central section about Barnes himself, and meditative opening and closing sections that reflect on larger questions – not only in relation to literature, but life more broadly.


This makes sense for a writer whose life over the past 25 years has been marked by great career successes – including the Booker Prize for The Sense of an Ending (2011), after a succession of shortlistings – as well as the tragedy of his wife Pat Kavanagh’s sudden death from brain cancer in 2008 and, more recently, his own chronic illness.

In 2020, Barnes, and the semi-fictional Barnes who narrates Departure(s), learned he had a form of blood cancer. He tells us that it will be with him until the end of his life, even if it is not the disease that kills him.

Grappling with this new condition, he turns to last things: to an accounting of his own shortcomings and to memory more generally.

Here we have reflections on Proust’s madeleine-induced stream of recollection, alongside Barnes’s thinking about the phenomenon of Involuntary Autobiographical Memory, or “IAM”. Barnes notes the case of a stroke victim, who claimed that eating a piece of pie released recollections of every pie he had ever eaten in order of consumption. He is at first horrified by the prospect of experiencing such a thing, until he realises that “IAMs would certainly help with autobiography”, particularly when recalling “moral actions and inactions”.

The novel’s “story” proper, when we get to it, concerns the narrator’s role in twice bringing together a couple: Stephen and Jean. He met them when all three were students at Oxford in the 1960s, and they met again 40 years later. Their “friendship”, such as it was, lasted little more than two periods of a year and a half either side of that 40-year gap.

The Barnes character had once been Jean’s lover, and his “moral actions and inactions” come to the fore in his account of these friends, now dead, for he promised Stephen and swore to Jean on a Bible that he would never write about them. There is here a return to some of Barnes’s longstanding interests as a novelist. Gaps in characters’ knowledge of one another become points of fixation or rupture.

One of the fears besetting some novelists is that they may fall victim to their own Rumsfeldian “unknown unknowns”. We know what we know about characters, story, theme, and so on. And we think we know what we don’t know (the discernible limits of our knowledge). But there is always the risk of a work being fractured internally by a force whose presence has remained beyond thinkability. This might be as simple as a hole in a plot, or as significant as an ideological blind spot.

Tics and irritants

Though I suspect Barnes would assert that he was in total control of this book, there were moments when I wondered. For instance, odd tics create a distancing effect where they might have been intended to do the opposite. Barnes has a habit of addressing the reader with self-conscious asides (“don’t you find?”) that feel more conversational than writerly.

There is also a curious refusal to name the male anatomy by its proper terms (though not so with the female). He uses schoolboy constructions such as “bum cancer”, rather than, say, “colon” or “rectal”. This is despite his being medically precise about his actual illness, its names, and its diagnosis and treatment.

There are also a few uncomfortable moments referring to homosexuality. We have “old Muckface, who turned out gay in the end”. The narrator suggests it would have been especially disturbing to find “a collection of dildos with dried blood on them” in Stephen’s home and refers to “schoolmasters we thought dodgy”. The latter are the only examples of gay people the narrator claims to have encountered as a child.

Julian Barnes.
Urszula Soltys/Penguin Random House

Barnes hastens to welcome progress that makes society more accepting, but this does not, for this reader, counterbalance the implied equation of “dodgy” character or predatory habits with homosexuality, nor his vivid and horrified amusement when imagining his friend might have a secret inclination towards anal eroticism.

In another vein, we have the narrator choosing to call Uluru by its colonial name, almost intentionally, it seems, to irritate a certain kind of reader.

These demurs might suggest significant irritation, but this is not the case. What I want from a writer of Barnes’s intelligence, however, is a handling of identity and representation worthy of his mind and talent.

I’m on Barnes’s side for much – though certainly not all – of the book. It is refreshing to open a contemporary novel in English and find that story and plot are second-order concerns, and that revealing the story in a review would not risk ruining the pleasure – and interest – of reading the book. Spoilers spoil nothing here.

But then I reach a conundrum, for Barnes offers this summary of a writer’s aims:

All writers want their words to have an effect. Novelists want to entertain, to reveal truth, to move, to provoke reverie. And beyond? Do they want their readers to act as a result of their words? It depends.

This seems to sketch the limits of Barnes’ aspirations for his art, assuming he thinks of his novels as art and not as mere entertainments. What, for me, is missing from that list is the possibility that a novelist might want to make readers think about the larger questions in more than a state of “reverie”, a word that implies the amorphousness of daydream.

Barnes appears to be placing himself in a tradition running parallel to but separate from that of British novelists-of-ideas of an earlier generation like Iris Murdoch, or his contemporary Ian McEwan, and younger writers like Zadie Smith. For all of these writers, I suspect that provoking serious thought is as important – and likely more important – than producing an emotional response (its own kind of thought, to be sure) or simply to entertain.

It is an odd final manoeuvre because Barnes is a novelist interested in thinking and thought. He has made a career of circling big ideas. But in the end, assuming this is truly the end, it is hard not to feel that he seems embarrassed to find himself so seriously interested in those larger questions, or so interesting to the readers who may continue to turn to his books for more than mere reverie.

Patrick Flanery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. In his last book, Julian Barnes circles big ideas and reflects on his shortcomings – https://theconversation.com/in-his-last-book-julian-barnes-circles-big-ideas-and-reflects-on-his-shortcomings-270652

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/in-his-last-book-julian-barnes-circles-big-ideas-and-reflects-on-his-shortcomings-270652/

How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch every day?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brittany Johnson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Caring Futures Institute, Flinders University

Peter Cade/Getty Images

Most Australian children bring their lunch to school through a “lunchbox system”. But there is a growing push for schools to provide students with lunch.

Despite decades of efforts to promote better nutrition, it is estimated nearly half (44%) of the foods Australian children eat at school are energy-dense and nutrient-poor (or “discretionary foods”). This is alarming as our previous research with children aged nine to eleven shows an association between a poor diet and lower NAPLAN scores.

School programs providing students with a nutritious lunch are common around the world. Research shows school-provided lunches can increase social equity and improve nutritional, health and learning outcomes.

Pilot school lunch programs have begun in Australia, including Tasmania, New South Wales and Victoria.

But wider school lunch programs would be a significant change to how children access food at school in Australia.

In our new research, we look at what parents think about school lunch programs. If school lunch programs are going to work in Australia, families’ support will be crucial.

Our research

In our study, we surveyed almost 400 parents of primary school students across Australia, to seek their views about school lunch programs. We recruited parents through paid social media advertisements. They came from a range of backgrounds and household incomes.

Based on different school food programs in the United Kingdom, France, Sweden and Australia, we tested six key components of a school-provided lunch model:

  • cost

  • nutrition and quality

  • environmental sustainability

  • menu options

  • access (should programs be optional or provided to all students regardless of their background)

  • a whole-school approach (is the lunch program integrated with classroom learning and other school messaging).

We also asked parents how much they would be willing to pay for different lunch approaches.

Most parents are keen on school lunch programs

We found 93% of parents surveyed were interested in school-provided lunches.

Parents told us nutrition and food quality was the key driver of their interest in a school lunch program. It was also the most important consideration when designing a school program.

Menu variety was the next most important consideration, with a strong preference for having two meal options. This was similar to our previous findings, which show parents and children value choice for school-provided lunches. Parents in the new study also expressed an interest in children trying a wider range of foods.

The next most important consideration for parents was taking an environmentally sustainable approach to the food program, followed by integrating food education and healthy eating across the school day.

Many parents in our survey were also motivated by the idea all children would have access to the same meal, with 70% saying they valued the potential for equal and stigma-free food provision.

Parents would pay about $6 per day

Globally, national school meal programs vary in payment models, ranging from free to subsidised/means tested or fully paid by students and families.

Parents unsurprisingly preferred lower-cost options over higher-cost options. But they also showed a willingness to pay more for programs that focused on food quality, sustainability and links to the curriculum – not just filling bellies.

Parents in our study currently spent around A$6 per day on lunchboxes (most spent between $4–10). They said they were happy to pay a similar amount for a school-provided lunch.

Most were even willing to pay a little more to subsidise lunches for others to ensure all children receive a meal or larger portions for older children.

Why this matters

Packing lunchboxes can be a real slog, putting lots of pressure on families.




Read more:
Swap muesli bars for homemade popcorn: 5 ways to pack a lower-waste lunch box


In another study we did, parents have talked openly about their “lunchbox guilt”. Parents have to pack lunchboxes as they balance busy work and family lives, children’s preferences and social expectations of “what’s OK to send to school”.

We also know many kids end up at school with food that is not healthy.

Our research suggests Australian parents are willing to invest in a different approach to school food. By highlighting what matters most to them – food quality – we get an important insight into what is more likely to make new programs successful and sustainable.

These results give policymakers valuable guidance on what families consider essential for a school-provided meal program.

Brittany Johnson receives funding from The Hospital Research Foundation Group, the Australian Research Council (LP240200796) and The Channel 7 Children’s Research Foundation for a project that involves School Food Matters (Tasmania) and The School Food Project (NSW) as partner organisations.

Alexandra Manson has received funding from the Australian government Research Training Program Scholarship and the King and Amy O’Malley Trust Postgraduate Research Scholarship, and receives funding from the Heart Foundation South Australian Kick Start Fellowship.

Rebecca Golley receives funding from The Australian Research Council (LP240200796) and The Channel 7 Children’s Research Foundation for a project that involves School Food Matters (Tasmania) and The School Food Project (NSW) as partner organisations.

ref. How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch every day? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-would-you-pay-for-school-to-provide-your-child-with-lunch-every-day-274513

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/how-much-would-you-pay-for-school-to-provide-your-child-with-lunch-every-day-274513/

Fossil fuels are doomed – and Trump can’t save them

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

The past three years have been the world’s hottest on record. In 2025, Earth was 1.44°C warmer than the long-term average, perilously close to breaching the Paris Agreement goal of 1.5°C.

This warming is fuelling Australia’s current record-breaking heatwave. Other consequences are visible globally, from Iran’s crippling drought to catastrophic wildfires and unprecedented floods in the United States to deadly cyclones hitting southern Asia.

We know what to do to tackle the climate crisis: replace fossil fuels with clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric vehicles and batteries. We are well on our way. Globally, the power produced by renewables overtook coal last year.

Petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and the US have made trillions from oil and gas. Now they are fighting a rearguard action to prolong fossil fuels. The US is pushing European nations to buy its gas, for instance.

But most countries have seen the writing on the wall. In November, the COP31 climate talks in Turkey are expected to deliver a global roadmap away from fossil fuels. Dozens of countries will meet in Colombia in April to fast-track the transition. The road ahead is bumpy. But the end of fossil fuels may finally be coming into view.

No holding back clean energy

There’s no one trying harder to slow the clean energy transition than US president Donald Trump. During his bid to return to the White House, Trump pressed oil executives for US$1 billion (A$1.4 bn) in campaign finance, promising a windfall in return.

In 2025, he increased subsidies for fossil fuel producers, weakened environmental laws, gutted Biden-era support for clean energy and moved to block clean energy projects, even some near completion. The US is now one of the world’s biggest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil.

But clean energy growth has proved difficult to kill. Despite Trump’s efforts, domestic solar generation is still expected to grow 46% in the next two years while electricity output from fossil fuel plants falls.

Trump is betting fossil fuels are the key to future American power. He made no secret of the fact the US military raid on Venezuela earlier this month was aimed at increasing oil production. He has implored US oil companies to invest billions to revive the country’s battered oil infrastructure. The response was lukewarm. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods said Venezuela was “uninvestable”.

Developing Venezuela’s oil reserves assumes there will be demand for decades to come. But the world now faces an oversupply of oil, even as sales of electric vehicles grow strongly in many countries. Last month, battery electric vehicles outsold petrol cars for the first time in Europe.

Electrostates rising

While the US doubles down on 20th century fossil fuels, China is betting on an electric 21st century. It is emerging as the first electrostate, dominating production and export of solar, wind, batteries and EVs. China is now the world’s biggest car exporter. Most new Chinese cars are powered by batteries, not oil.

China’s manufacturing might has driven down the price of batteries, the main cost of EVs. As EVs get cheaper, emerging economies are finding they can leapfrog fossil fuels and move straight to solar panels and EVs – even if the national power grid is limited or unreliable.

Commodity price trends show surging global demand for copper, silver and other metals needed for mass electrification. Worldwide, investment in clean energy technologies first overtook fossil fuel investment ten years ago. In 2025, clean investment was more than double the investment in coal, oil and gas. Clean energy is where the world is headed, whether Trump likes it or not.

China, India and Pakistan are rapidly making the shift to renewable power. Developing nations from Nepal to Ethiopia are taking up electric transport to slash the cost of importing fossil fuels.

China dominates production of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, batteries and EVs.
CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

A new roadmap away from fossil fuels

This week, the US formally withdrew from the Paris Agreement. But no other country has followed.

For decades, the COP talks have focused on “cutting emissions” without dealing directly with the use of coal, oil and gas. But at the 2023 talks, nearly 200 countries agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”.

At last year’s COP30 talks, host nation Brazil proposed a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. More than 80 countries backed the idea, including Australia, but pushback from Saudi Arabia and Russia kept it out of the final outcomes.

In response, Brazil is working to develop a roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. This – or something similar – may be formally adopted at the next climate talks in November.

While COP31 will be held in Turkey, Australian climate minister Chris Bowen will have a key role as “President of Negotiations” and will steer global discussion ahead of the summit.

Bowen plans to lobby petrostates to support a managed shift away from fossil fuels, drawing on Australia’s experience as a major exporter of coal and LNG facing its own transition. Korea – Australia’s third largest market for thermal coal – will retire its entire coal fleet by 2040.

Government modelling suggests Australia’s coal and gas exports could plummet 50% in value in five years as global demand falls. Independent modelling suggests the decline for coal could happen even faster if countries meet their climate targets. Policymakers must plan to manage this transition.

Coalitions of the willing?

Frustrated by slow progress, a coalition of nations is separately discussing how to phase out fossil fuels. The first conference will take place in April in Colombia. Here, delegates will discuss how to wind down fossil fuels while protecting workers and financial systems. Some nations want to negotiate a standalone treaty to manage the phase-out. Conference outcomes will also feed back into the UN climate talks.

Pacific island nations aim to be the world’s first 100% renewable region. Ahead of COP31, Australia and island nations will meet to progress this.

Progress is happening

In an ideal world, nations would rapidly tackle the existential threat of climate change together. We don’t live in that world. But it may not matter.

The shift to clean electric options has its own momentum. The question is whether the shift away from coal, oil and gas will be orderly – or chaotic.

Wesley Morgan is a fellow of the Climate Council of Australia

ref. Fossil fuels are doomed – and Trump can’t save them – https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuels-are-doomed-and-trump-cant-save-them-273798

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/fossil-fuels-are-doomed-and-trump-cant-save-them-273798/

Why is my migraine worse in summer?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lakshini Gunasekera, PhD Candidate in Neurology, Monash University

K8/Unsplash

For people with migraine, summer can be a double-edged sword. You may be able to relax more, sleep in, enjoy the sunshine, and spend time with family and friends.

But other factors – such as glare, heat, and changes to sleeping and diet – can make migraine attacks more likely or more severe.

Migraine is a disabling neurological disorder affecting 5 million Australians. In addition to a throbbing headache, it can cause hypersensitivity to light, sound, smells or movement.

Triggers for attacks vary from person to person and seasonal changes don’t affect everyone. But if you find your migraine attacks are worse or more likely in summer, knowing why can help you prepare.

The effect of hot weather

Normally when it is hot, you sweat more to regulate your core temperature. Your body becomes cooler when sweat evaporates off your body.

In summer when the air is hotter and there is more humidity, your brain’s hypothalamus causes blood vessels close to the skin to dilate so that heat can escape.

But people with migraine often have hypersensitive nerves and blood vessels. When blood vessels dilate in the heat, it can irritate nearby nerves and cause inflammation, which the migraine brain interprets as pain. This is due to the brain’s stress response, not an infection.

Dehydration

Sweating helps regulate your core body temperature, cooling you down as the sweat evaporates off your skin. But when the air is hot and humid, it’s harder for the sweat to evaporate and cool us down.

This can lead to dehydration – another potent trigger.

Why is dehydration so bad?

Imagine your brain like a sponge that is floating in spinal fluid within your skull. If you are dehydrated, the brain shrinks like a dry sponge and pulls on the attachments to the skull, which can trigger pain.

If you are well hydrated, the brain can expand to fill the space within the skull so there is less “pulling” and therefore less pain.

Sensitivity to light

For many people with migraine, glare is more than a minor annoyance – bright lights and reflection can cause pain and trigger attacks.

When light enters the back of the eye, special cells (retinal ganglion cells) process this signal and send messages to the brain’s sensory centre (the thalamus).

In migraine, these sensory pain pathways involving the thalamus are hypersensitive. Any extra light – or flickering or moving lights – is perceived as pain, rather than merely brightness, and can also lead to dizziness.

Glare also reduces the contrast of incoming light signals, so the brain’s visual centre (the visual cortex) needs to work extra hard to process signals. Certain wavelengths can also be harder to process (including blue and fluorescent light, or sunlight reflecting off screens). This can cause pain.

Disrupted routines

The migraine brain does not like change. But longer days in summer can mean changes to our routines.

Changes that might trigger a migraine include sleeping at inconsistent times on holidays, skipping or delaying meals, or changes in stress levels. This means new stress, increased stress – or even relaxing after a stressful period.

Changes in sensory information that the brain processes can also worsen migraine. This may include new smells (such as sunscreen or insect repellent), louder noises (excited children on holidays), and brighter light or glare.

Even exercising more than usual may be a trigger for some people.

Thunderstorms

Pollen, humidity and thunderstorms trigger allergy flares in people with asthma, hayfever and eczema. This makes the immune system release chemicals called histamine, which can trigger migraine attacks in some people.

Asthma and allergy action plans are doubly important for wellbeing in this group.

Sudden changes in air pressure (in aeroplanes and during storms) can also be a strong trigger for some people. Your friend who says they can predict the weather by their migraine symptoms may be right.

Know your triggers

Regardless of the season, being prepared is the key.

Keep a diary of your headache days and impacts of weather (temperature, humidity, glare) or activities (for example, how much you’re socialising or exercising). Headache neurologists can use this data to give you a targeted migraine plan.

In summer, you can also:

  • plan outings for cooler days of the week or times of day

  • limit sun and pack a hat and sunglasses. Lenses that are polarised or FL41-tinted may help beat glare

  • carry water bottles and electrolyte-rich fluids to avoid dehydration

  • set phone alarms so that you go to bed and wake up at consistent times

  • try to maintain regular balanced meals, without excess sugar, alcohol and processed foods.

Taking care of your medication

It’s also important to plan and correctly store your migraine medication, especially if you’re going on a trip. You should:

  • take acute migraine medications with you and make sure they’re up-to-date

  • check your scripts are current and you have repeats left

  • protect medications from heat. Don’t store them in the glovebox or bag in the sun for long periods. Injectable medications should be stored in the fridge below 4°C until use.

When travelling, you may need to adjust timing of doses or use a cooler bag to keep medication cool.

If you think you’re sensitive to seasonal changes, it’s best to talk to your neurologist about a migraine management plan. This can help you identify and manage key triggers and prevent and treat acute attacks.

Dr Lakshini Gunasekera receives funding from the Victorian Government Catalyst grant program to investigate hormonal therapies for menstrual migraine.

Dr Elspeth Hutton works for Alfred Health, is the President of the Australian & New Zealand Headache Society and has collaborated with Migraine and Headache Australia and Migraine Australia. She has previously served on advisory boards for Abbvie, TEVA, Lundbeck and Novartis, and received funding for an investigator-led study from Ipsen, as well as engaging in industry-sponsored clinical trials. She receives no current funding outside of salary.

ref. Why is my migraine worse in summer? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-my-migraine-worse-in-summer-268088

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/why-is-my-migraine-worse-in-summer-268088/

Your sense of self is deeply tied to your memory – here’s how

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shane Rogers, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, Edith Cowan University

You might say you have a “bad memory” because you don’t remember what cake you had at your last birthday party or the plot of a movie you watched last month. On the other hand, you might precisely recall the surface temperature of the Sun any time when asked.

So, is your memory bad, or just fine? Memory is at the very heart of who we are, but it’s surprisingly complex once we start looking at how it all fits together.

In fact, there’s more than one type of memory, and this determines how we recall certain facts about the world and ourselves.

How do we classify memory?

Cognitive psychologists distinguish between declarative memory and non-declarative memory. Non-declarative memories are expressed without conscious recollection, such as skills and habits like typing on a keyboard or riding a bike.

But memories you’re consciously aware of are declarative – you know your name, you know what year it is, and you know there is mustard in the fridge because you put it there.

However, not all of our memories are stored in the same way, nor in the same place in our brains. Declarative memory can be further broken down into semantic memory and episodic memory.

Semantic memory refers to general knowledge about the world. For example, knowing that cats are mammals.

Episodic memory refers to episodes of your life, typically with elements of “what”, “where” and “when”. For example, I remember cuddling my pet cat (what) in my home office (where) just before sitting down to write this article (when).

A sense of self-awareness is strongly involved in episodic memory. It’s the feeling of personally remembering.

For semantic memories, this sense is not as strong – you can have detached knowledge without the context of “how” and “when”. For instance, I know that Canberra is the capital city of Australia (semantic memory), yet I can’t remember specifically when and where I learnt this (episodic memory).

Lessons from amnesia

In the mid-20th century, famous case studies of amnesic patients were the early evidence of this distinction between semantic and episodic memory.

For example, Henry Molaison and Kent Cochrane both experienced brain damage that severely impacted their episodic memory abilities.

They couldn’t recall events from their lives, but knew many things about the world in general. In effect, their personal past had vanished, even though their general knowledge remained intact.

In one interview after the accident that caused his brain damage, Cochrane was able to describe how to change a flat tire in perfect detail – despite not remembering having ever done this task.

There have also been reports of cases of people whose ability to recall semantic memories is largely impaired, while their episodic memory abilities seem mostly fine. This is known as semantic dementia.

Your age affects how your memory works

Young children have both memory systems, but they develop at different rates. The capacity to form strong semantic memories comes first, while episodic memory takes longer.

In fact, true episodic memory ability may not fully develop until around the age of three or four years. This helps explain why you have scant memories of your earliest childhood. We gain greater self-awareness around the same age too.

While episodic memory ability develops more slowly in early life, it also declines more quickly in old age. On average, older adults tend to remember fewer episodic details compared to younger adults in memory recall assessments.

In older adults with more severe cognitive decline, such as dementia, the ability to recall episodic memories is typically much more affected, compared to semantic memories. For example, they might have difficulty remembering they had pasta for lunch the day before (episodic memory), while still having perfect knowledge of what pasta is (semantic memory).

Ultimately, it all works together

Brain imaging studies have actually revealed that overlapping areas of the brain are active when recalling both semantic and episodic types of memories. In a neurological sense, these two types of memory appear to have more similarities than differences.

In fact, some have suggested episodic and semantic memory might be better thought of as a continuum rather than as completely distinct memory systems. These days, researchers acknowledge memory recall in everyday life involves tight interaction between both types.

A major example of how you need both types to work together is autobiographical memory, also called personal semantics. This refers to personally relevant information about yourself.

Let’s say you call yourself “a good swimmer”. At first glance, this may appear to be a semantic memory – a fact without the how, why, or when. However, recall of such a personally relevant fact will likely also produce related recall of episodic experiences when you’ve been swimming.

All this is related to something known as semanticisation – the gradual transformation of episodic memories into semantic memories. As you can imagine, it challenges the distinction between semantic and episodic memory.

How our memories form over time.
Shane Rogers/The Conversation

Ultimately, how we remember shapes how we understand ourselves. Episodic memory allows us to mentally return to experiences that feel personally lived, while semantic memory provides the stable knowledge that binds those experiences into a coherent life story.

Over time, the boundary between the two softens as specific events are condensed into broader beliefs about who we are, what we value, and what we can do. Memory is not simply a storehouse of the past. It’s an active system that continually reshapes our sense of identity.

Shane Rogers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Your sense of self is deeply tied to your memory – here’s how – https://theconversation.com/your-sense-of-self-is-deeply-tied-to-your-memory-heres-how-241261

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/your-sense-of-self-is-deeply-tied-to-your-memory-heres-how-241261/

Antihero Marty Supreme is sociopathic in his pursuit of glory. Why do we want him to win?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Oscar Bloomfield, PhD Candidate in Film Studies, Deakin University

A24

Marty Supreme is a frenetic tale inspired by Marty Reisman, the charismatic American table tennis champion of the 1950s.

Charged by Timothée Chalamet’s electric lead performance – alongside a stellar supporting cast (including Gwyneth Paltrow), and director Josh Safdie’s signature, anxiety-inducing aesthetic – the film captures a young man’s all-or-nothing quest for greatness.

Marty Mauser is a morally ambiguous protagonist with a sociopathic, self-obsessed pursuit of glory. But Safdie invites the audience to champion his quest. In this, Marty emerges as a particularly compelling entry into Hollywood’s longstanding tradition of unlikable heroes.

Marty follows in the footsteps of other Safdie antiheroes – the reckless Howard Retnar (Adam Sandler) of Uncut Gems (2019) and the manipulative Connie Nikas (Robert Pattinson) of Good Time (2017). His do-or-die attitude stems from the ambition to escape his circumstances.

A Jewish kid from New York’s Lower East Side, he works at his uncle’s shoe store in order to fund his global table tennis ambitions. Refusing to listen to those around him, Marty seems aware that his self-delusion and performativity will ultimately propel him to success.

Marty compulsively lies, commits petty theft and willingly disregards the wellbeing of those close to him to fulfil what he believes to be his destiny.

Despite his problematic moral compass, Safdie’s protagonist ultimately wins over the audience’s support.

The Hollywood antihero

Hollywood is no stranger to popular antiheroes, from Travis Bickle in Taxi Driver (1976) to Arthur Fleck in Joker (2019). The Safdie brothers focus on recognisably ordinary characters caught in the chaos of their everyday existence.

Marty Supreme is Josh Safdie’s first solo directorial project since parting ways with his brother Benny. The pair have long been fascinated with figures who, despite their moral shortcomings, are inherently human.

The signature Safdie arc appeared in their indie film Daddy Longlegs (2009). Loosely based on Josh and Benny’s own experiences with their divorced father, the film crafts an honest, sympathetic portrait of a highly irresponsible (yet loving) parent trying to do his best.

In an emblematic action, Lenny (Ronald Bronstein) gives one of his sons a sleeping pill in order to allow him to return to his job at a local cinema. The misguided and neglectful act is still shown as a genuine attempt to keep his son safe and out of harm’s way.

Lenny’s traits of misdirected affection are observed throughout the Safdie protagonists.

Following an unsuccessful robbery, Good Time’s Connie frantically attempts to break his developmentally disabled brother, Nicky (Benny Safdie), out of prison and a psychiatric facility.

In Uncut Gems, Howard is driven by greed and lust but demonstrates a genuine care for his family, repeatedly insisting his ambitions are guided by the need to provide for them.

Like Lenny, Howard and Connie, Marty has the capacity to do what is right and care for those he loves. But his egotistical, self-absorbed quest to gain status ultimately clouds his ability to comprehend the consequences of his actions.

The universality of struggle

How does Josh Safdie succeed in creating a protagonist who – despite lying that his mother died during childbirth and neglecting his pregnant girlfriend – nonetheless wins the audience’s support?

Marty’s championing is undoubtedly in part due to Chalamet’s star-image and onscreen charisma. And his quest for greatness depicts the triumphant tale of a figure who, against all odds, continues to pursue his dreams with obsessive belief.

At its core, Marty Supreme is a stylised, high-octane reworking of the familiar “David versus Goliath” narrative.

Here, “Goliath” evokes both the American Dream and the Immigrant Dream, uphill battles where the odds are stacked against the individual.

This idea is prominent across other Safdie brothers films. In Good Time, “Goliath” is the criminal justice system, shown as a particularly dehumanising institutional structure for marginalised individuals. In Heaven Knows What (2014) – a gritty tale based on Arielle Holmes’s autobiography of addiction, love and struggle – substance dependency is presented as the ultimate obstacle.

Marty’s ambitions of table tennis stardom are neither recognised nor respected by those around him. This drives him to go to greater lengths in order to fund his career.

While his extreme measures may be unsympathetic – and perhaps unforgivable – Marty’s fundamental desire to transcend his circumstances remains relatable.

Marty’s ambitions of table tennis stardom are neither recognised nor respected by those around him.
A24

Within the film’s spiralling chain of events, Marty Supreme captures the hardship of pursuing a dream only you recognise.

Marty is neither one-dimensional nor simplistic. Rather, the film allows his humanity to surface throughout his self-absorbed and destructive journey.

Marty’s unrelenting commitment to his dream catalyses his moral failing. But he is nonetheless a figure capable of tenderness. Far from a role model, Marty is a complex character. Despite being capable of caring for those he loves, he blindly priorities the fierce pursuit of his dreams.

Marty’s antihero persona reflects not only the lengths required to realise one’s aspirations, but also the consequences of pursuing those dreams at any cost.

While Marty Supreme dramatises the egotistical pursuit of its flawed protagonist, it ultimately explores the universal ambition to dream big – and questions what is worth sacrificing in order to achieve success.

Oscar Bloomfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Antihero Marty Supreme is sociopathic in his pursuit of glory. Why do we want him to win? – https://theconversation.com/antihero-marty-supreme-is-sociopathic-in-his-pursuit-of-glory-why-do-we-want-him-to-win-274418

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/antihero-marty-supreme-is-sociopathic-in-his-pursuit-of-glory-why-do-we-want-him-to-win-274418/

How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch everyday?

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brittany Johnson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Caring Futures Institute, Flinders University

Peter Cade/Getty Images

Most Australian children bring their lunch to school through a “lunchbox system”. But there is a growing push for schools to provide students with lunch.

Despite decades of efforts to promote better nutrition, it is estimated nearly half (44%) of the foods Australian children eat at school are energy-dense and nutrient-poor (or “discretionary foods”). This is alarming as our previous research with children aged nine to eleven shows an association between a poor diet and lower NAPLAN scores.

School programs providing students with a nutritious lunch are common around the world. Research shows school-provided lunches can increase social equity and improve nutritional, health and learning outcomes.

Pilot school lunch programs have begun in Australia, including Tasmania, New South Wales and Victoria.

But wider school lunch programs would be a significant change to how children access food at school in Australia.

In our new research, we look at what parents think about school lunch programs. If school lunch programs are going to work in Australia, families’ support will be crucial.

Our research

In our study, we surveyed almost 400 parents of primary school students across Australia, to seek their views about school lunch programs. We recruited parents through paid social media advertisements. They came from a range of backgrounds and household incomes.

Based on different school food programs in the United Kingdom, France, Sweden and Australia, we tested six key components of a school-provided lunch model:

  • cost

  • nutrition and quality

  • environmental sustainability

  • menu options

  • access (should programs be optional or provided to all students regardless of their background)

  • a whole-school approach (is the lunch program integrated with classroom learning and other school messaging).

We also asked parents how much they would be willing to pay for different lunch approaches.

Most parents are keen on school lunch programs

We found 93% of parents surveyed were interested in school-provided lunches.

Parents told us nutrition and food quality was the key driver of their interest in a school lunch program. It was also the most important consideration when designing a school program.

Menu variety was the next most important consideration, with a strong preference for having two meal options. This was similar to our previous findings, which show parents and children value choice for school-provided lunches. Parents in the new study also expressed an interest in children trying a wider range of foods.

The next most important consideration for parents was taking an environmentally sustainable approach to the food program, followed by integrating food education and healthy eating across the school day.

Many parents in our survey were also motivated by the idea all children would have access to the same meal, with 70% saying they valued the potential for equal and stigma-free food provision.

Parents would pay about $6 per day

Globally, national school meal programs vary in payment models, ranging from free to subsidised/means tested or fully paid by students and families.

Parents unsurprisingly preferred lower-cost options over higher-cost options. But they also showed a willingness to pay more for programs that focused on food quality, sustainability and links to the curriculum – not just filling bellies.

Parents in our study currently spent around A$6 per day on lunchboxes (most spent between $4–10). They said they were happy to pay a similar amount for a school-provided lunch.

Most were even willing to pay a little more to subsidise lunches for others to ensure all children receive a meal or larger portions for older children.

Why this matters

Packing lunchboxes can be a real slog, putting lots of pressure on families.




Read more:
Swap muesli bars for homemade popcorn: 5 ways to pack a lower-waste lunch box


In another study we did, parents have talked openly about their “lunchbox guilt”. Parents have to pack lunchboxes as they balance busy work and family lives, children’s preferences and social expectations of “what’s OK to send to school”.

We also know many kids end up at school with food that is not healthy.

Our research suggests Australian parents are willing to invest in a different approach to school food. By highlighting what matters most to them – food quality – we get an important insight into what is more likely to make new programs successful and sustainable.

These results give policymakers valuable guidance on what families consider essential for a school-provided meal program.

Brittany Johnson receives funding from The Hospital Research Foundation Group, the Australian Research Council (LP240200796) and The Channel 7 Children’s Research Foundation for a project that involves School Food Matters (Tasmania) and The School Food Project (NSW) as partner organisations.

Alexandra Manson has received funding from the Australian government Research Training Program Scholarship and the King and Amy O’Malley Trust Postgraduate Research Scholarship, and receives funding from the Heart Foundation South Australian Kick Start Fellowship.

Rebecca Golley receives funding from The Australian Research Council (LP240200796) and The Channel 7 Children’s Research Foundation for a project that involves School Food Matters (Tasmania) and The School Food Project (NSW) as partner organisations.

ref. How much would you pay for school to provide your child with lunch everyday? – https://theconversation.com/how-much-would-you-pay-for-school-to-provide-your-child-with-lunch-everyday-274513

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/29/how-much-would-you-pay-for-school-to-provide-your-child-with-lunch-everyday-274513/

Pacific women scholars call for ‘radical shift’ in global health systems

By Khalia Strong of PMN News

A new paper by women scholars warns colonial power structures are still shaping health systems across the Pacific region.

They are calling for a radical shift in global health leadership and decision-making.

The call comes from a new paper published this month in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific, led by researchers from Waipapa Taumata Rau, the University of Auckland, alongside Pacific collaborators.

The paper argues that while global health is framed around fairness and inclusion, Pacific knowledge and leadership are often marginalised in practice.

Dr Sainimere Boladuadua, lead author from the University of Auckland’s Department of Paediatrics: Child and Youth Health, said these power imbalances directly impacted on communities.

“Global Health must stop undervaluing Pacific expertise,” Dr Boladuadua said in a statement.

“When overseas consultants are paid more than local experts, and research extracts knowledge without building local capacity, colonial patterns are reinforced.”

Global health . . . perspectives from the next generation in the Pacific region. Image: Re-imagining Global Health

Colonisation inequities
The researchers have traced current inequities to the history of colonisation in the Pacific, driven by commercial, religious, and military interests.

While many Pacific nations have since achieved political independence, the paper argues that colonial structures persist through unequal trade relationships, labour migration schemes, and externally controlled funding.

Dr Boladuadua said these systems limited Pacific control over health research, policy priorities, and resources, even as communities face growing burdens from non-communicable diseases and climate change.

“Global Health, at its core, is about health equity for all,” she said. “That means prioritising the most pressing problems faced by communities with the least resources.”

Dr Sainimere Boladuadua (centre) at the Fulbright awards ceremony with the US Consul-General Sarah Nelson and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Honorary Chair of Fulbright NZ, Winston Peters. Image: Ōtago University

A plan for change
The paper outlines four action areas to transform global health in the Pacific: strengthening sovereignty through Pacific-led decision-making; integrating Indigenous and Western knowledge systems; building genuine and reciprocal partnerships; and ensuring fair pay, recognition, and leadership opportunities for Pacific professionals.

The authors argue Pacific Island countries must be supported to set their own priorities, including control over funding, research management, data sovereignty, and workforce training.

The researchers also highlight language as a source of power. They say English is often treated as the default in global health, but its use “should not come at the expense of Indigenous Pacific languages and knowledge systems”.

The research places Pacific women at the centre of decolonisation efforts, noting that while colonisation was deeply patriarchal, Indigenous women historically held major leadership roles in island societies.

“Contrary to the control of white women during colonisation, Indigenous women held powerful positions in Island societies,” the research states.

Growing Pacific leadership
Dr Boladuadua said change was already underway, pointing to the establishment of the Fiji Institute of Pacific Health Research and the launch of the Pacific Academy of Sciences in Sāmoa as signs of growing Pacific leadership.

At the academy’s opening ceremony, then-prime minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa said the launch marked an important milestone for regional collaboration and would “give voice to science in and from the Pacific Islands”.

The authors argue Pacific-led approaches offer a blueprint not only for the region, but for building fairer and more resilient global health systems worldwide.

Republished from Pacific Media Network News with permission.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/pacific-women-scholars-call-for-radical-shift-in-global-health-systems/

PSNA seeks urgent police talks after ‘rock through window’ attack on Palestine supporters

Asia Pacific Report

The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) has asked for an urgent meeting with Police Commissioner Richard Chambers and is calling for “cohesive action” over escalating attacks by Israel supporters against Palestinians and human rights activists.

The network said in a statement a rock had been hurled through the window of New Plymouth activists Kate and Grant Cole last week.

Co-chair Maher Nazzal said attacks from Zionist supporters had become “more frequent and dangerous” over the past year.

“In the case of the Coles, the rock through their window was just the latest in a series of targeted attacks on them and their property,” he said in the statement.

“They have twice endured spray-painted Israeli flags on their fence. Their car tyres were slashed on four different occasions. They had vile lies about them delivered in letterboxes around their neighbourhood.

“This time, it was a rock flung through their window with the message ‘Snap Action — REQ’ attached.”

Nazzal said local police had failed to take these attacks seriously. They had suggested to the Coles that they should “spend a lot of money on security systems”.

He said attacks on activists were increasing even before US President Donald Trump’s “failed ceasefire agreement” for Gaza was signed last October 10.

Pro-Israel lobby ‘has failed’
“The pro-Israel lobby is upset their side has failed to keep the genocide in Gaza completely out of public view,” Nazzal said.

“They have lost the debate. Poll responses show New Zealanders register two to one that New Zealand should sanction Israel for genocide and recognise a Palestinian state.

“Israelis and Israel’s supporters are taking their shock and frustration out on Palestine solidarity activists.

“In the past couple of weeks alone, two women activists were stalked after a protest in Auckland.

“There was spray painting and vandalism of PSNA co-chair John Minto’s home, an assault on a supporter by an ex-IDF soldier in Auckland and attacks on our supporters in Napier.”

Nazzal said that while the police had been vigorous in investigating and prosecuting anyone they believed to have been acting for Palestinian rights — such as the broken window at Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ home and an assault on an Israeli soldier holidaying here — they were slow to follow up on attacks on Palestine supporters.

He said the police were keen to “pull out all stops” for the Israeli Embassy to defend Israeli soldiers “fresh from a genocide in Gaza — but can’t find the time to take attacks on Palestinians and Palestinian supporters seriously.”

The police have yet to comment on PSNA’s claims.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/psna-seeks-urgent-police-talks-after-rock-through-window-attack-on-palestine-supporters/

View from The Hill: Nationals rebel stirs the pot but Littleproud is dug in

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

A little-known Nationals MP, Queenslander Colin Boyce, who declared on Wednesday he will move for a spill of the party’s leadership, has tossed a grenade but David Littleproud appears firmly dug in.

Littleproud’s breaking of the Coalition has had a profound impact on conservative politics, further destabilising the Liberals and their leader Sussan Ley. It has divided his own party.

But as of late Wednesday no other challengers were in sight, and there did not seem to be support for a spill.

Boyce announced his move – to be made the Nationals’ Monday meeting – on Sky News, saying he wanted to give colleagues “an option”.

“The reality is, if they follow the course they’re on now, they are going over the political cliff,” he said.

“The National Party is committing political suicide by removing itself from the Coalition.”

Boyce – close to Barnaby Joyce, now ensconced in One Nation – flagged he would run for leader, but he won’t get the chance if he can’t get support for the spill motion.

Littleproud said in a statement,

I stand by my record as Leader of The Nationals and what our Party Room has achieved.

The Nationals held all of its House of Representatives seats at the last election.

The Nationals also fought to keep important policies, including the Regional Australia Future Fund, tougher action on supermarkets with divestiture powers, Universal Service Obligation reform to ensure better mobile phone coverage in regional areas, and dumping net zero while keeping all energy options on the table, including nuclear.

More recently, The Nationals opposed Labor’s hate speech laws, due to the unknown slippery slope of stopping freedom of speech.

Littleproud is protected by two factors: his leadership style, and the lack of an alternative who is both willing and viable.

Littleproud has gone to great lengths to protect his back by tying his colleagues into every decision. A main way he’s done this is by taking every single thing to his party room. Last week the Nationals had numerous meetings, with every incremental development going back to them.

Matt Canavan, the strongest and hardest-line voice in the party who ran against Littleproud after the election, is backing the leader.

In last week’s battle over the anti-hate legislation, Canavan got his way when the Nationals voted against the bill in the Senate. He has no reason to want Littleproud out.

Canavan said on Wednesday: “I’m proud of the team and what it did last week.” He saw “no reason to change leader”, although he could not understand why the Coalition needed to split – why the two parties could not have had different views and move on.

Former leader Michael McCormack voted for that legislation in the House of Representatives, so that would cruel any chance of a return for him.

He told the Canberra Times, “the leadership’s not on offer. The leadership is the gift of the party room, and the party room is very supportive of David.”

Senator Bridget McKenzie said, “this spill motion has come out of the blue. I don’t believe the party room has changed since last week’s events.”

Given how disruptive a force Littleproud is, there would be logic for the Nationals to install current deputy Kevin Hogan, which could facilitate getting the Coalition back together.

Late in last week’s crisis, Hogan had talks with a senior Liberal about a peace plan. It involved:

  1. the senators who had breached shadow cabinet solidarity resigning

  2. their resignations not being accepted

  3. a formal acknowledgement this was an exception and in future shadow cabinet decisions, solidarity would prevail, and

  4. having future blunt conversations between the leaderships of the two parties to iron out problems.

Needless to say, no peace was made.

Hogan ruled out any tilt at the leadership. “David has my overwhelming support and he has the overwhelming support of the [Nationals] room”, he said.

Meanwhile Ley wrote on Tuesday to Littleproud, suggesting a meeting.

She explained in a message to her Liberal shadow ministry colleagues, sent on Wednesday, “I wrote to David Littleproud proposing that we meet along with other senior party officials, without any preconditions and as a priority, ahead of Parliament’s return.

“I reminded him that as the leaders of the Liberal and National parties, we are the stewards of two great movements that exist to serve the Australian people and that maintaining a strong and functioning relationship between our two parties is in the national interest — whether in formal Coalition or not.

“David’s team have just advised mine that his focus is the spill motion he now faces and he is therefore unavailable to meet until after that spill is considered.”

That sounds like a fobb-off rather than a genuine excuse.

Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. View from The Hill: Nationals rebel stirs the pot but Littleproud is dug in – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-nationals-rebel-stirs-the-pot-but-littleproud-is-dug-in-272441

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/view-from-the-hill-nationals-rebel-stirs-the-pot-but-littleproud-is-dug-in-272441/