Category: MIL-OSI

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melissa Conley Tyler, Honorary Fellow, Asia Institute, The University of Melbourne

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Timor-Leste today, making his first official visit.

Known in English as East Timor, Timor-Leste is one of Australia’s closest neighbours.

The countries have shared interests in everything from fishing to biosecurity.

Australia’s foreign policy has consistently identified Timor-Leste as a country of “fundamental importance”.

It’s in Australia’s interests that Timor-Leste is successful and stable.

Challenges in Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste faces significant challenges.

Despite being about 700 kilometres from Darwin, the United Nations considers it one of the world’s least developed countries. Its per person GDP is $1,502, compared to Australia’s $64,604.

In many ways, the period since Timor-Leste gained independence in 2002 is the first opportunity its people have had to shape their destiny.

Timor-Leste endured centuries as a Portuguese colony before political turmoil in Portugal caused it to drop its colonies in 1975.

Then, a declaration of independence was followed by annexation and 24 years of occupation by Indonesia.

Now it is full of hope as a new democratic nation with a rapidly growing youth population.

But it needs support. One in two children under five are stunted – not getting enough nutrition to grow in their early years – which will have lifetime effects on their health, education and productivity.

Encouragingly, a recent external review of Australia’s development cooperation program shows evidence that long-term partnerships are paying off, with local civil society organisations in Timor-Leste steadily strengthening their capacity over time.

Why visit now?

Timor-Leste is right in the middle of what President José Ramos Horta describes as “a crucial period for the future of our nation”.

Revenue from oil and gas fields has dried up. Past profits were saved in a petroleum fund, but that may soon be depleted.

Timor-Leste’s economy is not growing fast enough to create youth jobs.

However, Timor-Leste has just joined the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) after a long process, with hopes it will open up economic opportunities.

When I visited last year, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim was in town talking up the potential of trade links.

Australia also needs to prepare for eventual political change in Timor-Leste.

Until now, top political posts have been held by those who fought for independence. At some point there will be a generational transfer of power.

There was some political unrest last year in the form of student protests against politicians perceived to be granting themselves perks.

Australia does not want democratic regression or a failed state on its doorstep.

What’s on the agenda?

Not much information has been released ahead of Albanese’s visit.

We know the prime minister will be meeting with Ramos Horta and Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão.

He will be addressing parliament, which he describes as an honour.

The fact Albanese will be receiving Timor-Leste’s highest civilian award suggests the mood will be positive.

The biggest news would be if there are any further developments on the Greater Sunrise gas field, located in the Timor Sea, about 450km northwest of Darwin.

This A$50 billion project has not yet been developed due to disagreement over whether processing would take place in Darwin or Dili, Timor-Leste’s capital.

It is not expected to be a focus of the visit.

Other big news would be an enhanced security treaty.

Given concerns about China’s security cooperation with countries in the region, Australia has signed significant security agreements in the past year with Tuvalu, Nauru, Papua New Guinea and Indonesia.

But the prime minister has been at pains to stress this visit is not about China.

More likely it could be celebrating and expanding things that are going well. One example is the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme which enables Timorese workers to come to Australia to develop skills and earn money.

Another is the New Colombo Plan which supports young Australians to study and immerse themselves in the region. This has just been extended to Timor-Leste in 2026.

It may be there is nothing new from the visit, just a clear statement of how seriously Australia takes the relationship with Timor-Leste.

It may be as simple – and as important – as that.

Beyond government

The Timor Leste-Australia relationship has a lot of buy-in beyond the federal government.

Across Australia, there are friendship groups that raise funds for schools in Timor-Leste or sell Timorese coffee through local councils.

I’ve met Australians who came to Timor-Leste as students and are still there.

A great example is the MP for Darwin, Luke Gosling, who will be accompanying the prime minister on the visit.

After his Army service in the peacekeeping mission that led to Timor-Leste’s independence, he established a volunteer charity to build schools, provide running water and deliver maternal health care.

It’s important to keep these sorts of initiatives going and to extend them. The needs in Timor-Leste are so great that individual Australians can have a huge impact.

Surprisingly, given the complicated history between the two countries, most Timorese seem to have a real sense of friendship with Australia.

Having a neighbour that is stable, prosperous and friendly is something that is well worth our prime minister’s time.

Melissa Conley Tyler is executive director at the Asia-Pacific Development, Diplomacy & Defence Dialogue (AP4D), an initiative funded by the foreign affairs and defence portfolios and hosted by the Australian Council for International Development.

– ref. Plenty on the agenda as Anthony Albanese heads to Timor-Leste as PM for the first time – https://theconversation.com/plenty-on-the-agenda-as-anthony-albanese-heads-to-timor-leste-as-pm-for-the-first-time-274023

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/plenty-on-the-agenda-as-anthony-albanese-heads-to-timor-leste-as-pm-for-the-first-time-274023/

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Brook, Professor of Applied Geology, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

In the days since last week’s fatal landslides at Mount Maunganui, there has been widespread discussion about what may have caused the slopes above the campground to fail, including the possible role of recent tree removal on Mauao.

In the aftermath of such tragedy, it is natural to search for clear explanations. But landslides typically reflect a complex combination of factors – from geology and long-term slope evolution to weather, climate and land use.

A landscape prone to failure

The Tauranga region is underlain by volcanic materials that are well known for their instability. Over time, volcanic rock weathers into clay-rich soils, including a problematic mineral known as halloysite.

During heavy rainfall, water infiltrates these clay-rich soils, increasing porewater pressure between soil particles. This reduces the soil’s shear strength, making slopes more prone to failure.

Similar processes have driven devastating landslides elsewhere: dozens of people were killed in rainfall-triggered landslides in Indonesia’s West Java region just days ago, on comparable volcanic clay soils.

Recognising this risk, Tauranga City Council commissioned landslide susceptibility mapping following the extreme weather events of 2023. These datasets allow the public to view landslide-prone areas and “relic slips” – ancient landslides that still leave visible imprints on the landscape.

Importantly, they indicate where land has failed in the past – and remains potentially vulnerable during intense rainfall or after land-use changes.

While most of the Tauranga district is comprehensively covered by these mapping tools, there is one notable omission: the area west of Adam’s Avenue, where Mauao and the campground are located. Landslide hazard layers for this zone are absent from public web portals, despite Mauao being particularly landslide-prone.

Historical aerial imagery dating back to 1943 reveals dozens of landslides on Mauao’s slopes. Some of the most significant occurred during Cyclone Wilma in January 2011, when 108mm of rain fell in 24 hours.

A detailed University of Auckland study identified at least 80 landslides from that single storm, including debris avalanches extending up to 120 metres downslope. Some of these failures have partially reactivated since, following later heavy rainfall.

Trees, slopes and stability

In addition to these historic events, older “paleo-landslides” exist on Mauao, including two on slopes above the campground. It was from this general zone that the January 22 landslide appears to have initiated – and much online discussion has also centred on tree removal within it.

Some media reports have pointed to vegetation clearance during 2022–23, but historical imagery suggests removal in this specific area likely occurred earlier, around 2018–19. More broadly, vegetation cover above the campground has declined gradually since the mid-20th century.

However, the relationship between vegetation and landsliding on Mauao is not straightforward. During Cyclone Wilma, major landslides occurred across both densely vegetated slopes and grass-covered areas.

Trees typically enhance slope stability in two main ways: their canopy intercepts rainfall, slowing water infiltration, and their roots reinforce soil strength. This is why widespread landsliding associated with forestry harvesting – particularly radiata pine – has long been a serious problem in parts of New Zealand.

But trees can also contribute to slope failure under certain conditions. Large leafy trees can act like sails during extreme winds, transmitting powerful forces into saturated soils.

After the 2023 Auckland Anniversary storm, research showed wind loading likely initiated some landslides on the slopes of Maungakiekie/One Tree Hill, as trees were rocked back and forth until they uprooted, dragging soil downslope.

As well, when trees grow near the tops of steep slopes, their weight – known as “surcharge” – can increase destabilising forces. In some clay soils, this effect may exceed the stabilising benefit of root reinforcement. Tree roots can also promote long-term weathering by growing into fractures in underlying rock.

All of this means vegetation is only one factor among many.

Why simple explanations fall short

Landslides in New Zealand’s hilly terrain typically result from a combination of preconditioning factors, many of which are influenced by human activity.

These can include reshaping slopes to create building platforms, cutting into slope toes for roads or structures, loading slopes with buildings, redirecting stormwater onto vulnerable terrain, and constructing poorly designed retaining walls that trap water within slopes.

While some trees were certainly removed from the broader source area of last week’s landslide, their role in destabilising the slope remains uncertain.

The slope had already experienced multiple historical failures, was underlain by volcanic clays and was subjected to intense rainfall – conditions that together are well known to trigger landsliding.

There is still much we do not yet know about the precise mechanisms that caused last week’s failures on Mauao. That is precisely why independent investigations and technical reviews are so important.

Martin Brook receives funding from the Natural Hazards Commission.

– ref. Do trees prevent landslides? What science says about roots, rainfall and stability – https://theconversation.com/do-trees-prevent-landslides-what-science-says-about-roots-rainfall-and-stability-274518

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/do-trees-prevent-landslides-what-science-says-about-roots-rainfall-and-stability-274518/

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hal Pawson, Emeritus Professor of Housing, UNSW Sydney

The European Commission recently released its first-ever Affordable Housing Plan.

Property prices have outpaced incomes across Europe over the past decade. Home ownership has been pushed out of reach for many.

But for economically successful cities and tourist regions, price and rent trends have been even more stark. For example, the commission reports that “in cities and regions in high demand, even one third of average income is often not sufficient to pay the rent on a 25 square metre apartment”.

The commission’s plan, therefore, is mainly a response to the growing worries about the socially destructive effects of failing housing systems.

Equally concerning, though, is the economic damage wreaked by housing affordability stress. The commission sees this as “impairing labour and educational mobility, weighing on economic growth, innovation, and competitiveness”. It’s a highly pertinent assessment for Australia.

So what does the European plan suggest, and what lessons does it hold for Australia?

Tackling housing unaffordability

As in Australia, the commission’s top prescription for enhanced housing affordability is ramped-up home building. Here, it’s estimated that EU-wide industry output needs to rise by 40% to match current demand.

This is in the same ballpark as the Australian government’s five-year aspiration to enable the construction of 1.2 million new homes from 2025. That’s a 33% increase over the 2005–25 norm.

As desirable as such an objective may be, the scope for significantly enhancing affordability in this way remains questionable. It’s particularly doubtful in light of recently published Australian modelling on the relationship between house building and house prices.

This analysis suggests that, without complementary policies, generating even a very modest affordability improvement would be challenging. It would require housing industry output to be boosted by a third, not just for five years, but consistently for two decades.

Wisely, though, the commission’s plan recognises many complementary efforts are also needed. These include “maximising the efficient use of the existing building stock”. In other words, policymaker attention to expanding new housing production is illogical without a parallel emphasis on reducing the large numbers of vacant and under-used homes nowadays present in many countries.

With one million Australian dwellings unoccupied on census night in 2021 and another million owner-occupied properties grossly underutilised, this point resonates here, too.

Fundamental land tax reform, widely supported by economists and other housing experts, is the most obvious solution in Australia, just as in other countries.

The role of other property tax settings

Similarly highlighted as problematic by the European Commission is how “increased financialisation and speculation” is putting further pressure on housing affordability.

In response, EU member states are encouraged to implement measures including “effective taxation policies” and “[assigning] a set share of new housing developments to social and affordable housing, reflecting local housing needs”.

If transposed to the Australian setting, these messages would reinforce growing calls for winding back private landlord tax concessions.

Read more:
How many of Australia’s 2.2 million property investors would lose out under a new plan to curb negative gearing?

The European Commission recommendations also align with Australian calls to expand affordable housing contribution requirements. That is, developer obligations to include below-market rental units within market-rate housing projects in pricey areas.

Not only does this effectively source housing subsidy from land value, it can also help to ensure a degree of social mix in areas otherwise dominated by higher income populations.

The plan also addresses the need for improved energy efficiency and building quality to lower living costs. These important housing policy issues are largely neglected in Australia.

More social and affordable rentals

The European Commission’s advocacy on housing for low-income groups rejects any suggestion that stepped-up market house building (if achieved) can be solely relied upon to “naturally” address such needs.

This idea, termed “market filtering”, is the process sometimes described as “trickle-down housing”.

Rather, the plan contends that “expanding social and affordable housing is particularly important to support low- and middle-income households”.

To facilitate this, restrictive state aid rules are to be relaxed to encourage more affordable housing investment.

This measure has no direct Australian parallel. But the commission’s stance here chimes with the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council view. It says “significant investment is needed to increase [Australia’s] stock of social and affordable housing”.

Spending has been recently stepped up by both federal and state governments in Australia, but current commitments remain insufficient in both scale and duration.

The importance of ambition

The EU plan, of course, has limitations.

Its problem analysis is stronger than its pledged responses. Consistent with EU traditions, these lean heavily towards market-enabling measures rather than active interventions.

And the union’s powers over member states in areas such as property tax and land use planning are very limited.

But perhaps the plan’s greatest significance to nations beyond the EU is simply its existence and ambition.

Here in Australia, federal Labor pledged in 2022 to produce a long-term housing and homelessness strategy during the last parliament. Regrettably, this commitment remains unfulfilled.

There is an echo of the EU’s constrained position in the Commonwealth’s limited authority over state and territory governments on housing.

But, unlike Brussels, Canberra controls key housing-related policy levers on taxation, financial regulation and social security. The federal government also has financial firepower vastly superior to the states.

Other countries show it can be done. Most notably, in developing its own National Housing Strategy in 2017, federal Canada has provided an instructive model for federal Australia.

Though recent Australian housing policy innovations have been both many in number and generally positive in nature, they remain piecemeal and patchy. There is no coherent road map for the deeper reforms needed for transformative change.

Given the inherent complexity of housing, this is an especially challenging policy domain. As argued in our new book, therefore, a purposeful housing reform agenda demands a long-term, federally-led national housing mission and strategy, underpinned in legislation.

Hal Pawson receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), from the Lord Mayor’s Charitable Fund (City of Melbourne), and from Crisis UK. As an unpaid advisor, he is affiliated with Senator David Pocock. He is a non-exec director of Community Housing Canberra.

Vivienne Milligan receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. She is a committee member of the Australian Community Land Trust Network.

– ref. What can Australia learn from Europe’s housing plan? – https://theconversation.com/what-can-australia-learn-from-europes-housing-plan-272999

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/what-can-australia-learn-from-europes-housing-plan-272999/

ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on January 28, 2026.

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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hal Pawson, Emeritus Professor of Housing, UNSW Sydney Liene Ratniece/Pexels, CC BY-SA The European Commission recently released its first-ever Affordable Housing Plan. Property prices have outpaced incomes across Europe over the past decade. Home ownership has been pushed out of reach for many. But for economically successful

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NZ’s sodden January explained: what’s driven this month’s big wet?
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Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/er-report-a-roundup-of-significant-articles-on-eveningreport-nz-for-january-28-2026/

By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

Pacific delegates in the United States Congress are warning efforts to fast-track deep-seabed mining could sideline island communities and cause irreversible damage to fragile ocean ecosystems.

The concerns were raised at a House Natural Resources Committee hearing in Washington last week, held a day after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finalised new rules streamlining permits for seabed mining.

The changes allow companies to apply for exploration and potential commercial recovery through a single process, replacing regulations dating back to the 1980s.

NOAA says the update reflects advances in deep-sea science and technology and does not weaken environmental safeguards.

But Guam Delegate James Moylan said decisions made in Washington had real and lasting consequences in the Pacific.

“The ocean is how we live. It feeds our families, holds our history, and connects our people to generations before us,” Moylan said.

American Samoa Delegate Aumua Amata Radewagen warned seabed mining could threaten fisheries, which she described as the lifeblood of island economies.

Northern Marianas Delegate Kimberlyn King-Hinds said Pacific territories “don’t get the luxury of being wrong” on ocean policy, warning that damage to the seabed would be permanent.

Industry representatives told lawmakers the streamlined process would provide certainty without weakening environmental reviews, while scientists warned deep-sea ecosystems could take decades to recover, if at all.

For Pacific delegates, the message was clear — faster permitting must not come at the expense of island voices or ocean protection.

This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/01/28/pacific-delegates-warn-against-us-fast-tracking-seabed-mining/