Category: Business

Source: Radio New Zealand

ANZ is the latest bank to increase interest rates.

It is increasing its 18-month to five-year rates by 20 basis points, and its one-year rate by 10 basis points.

Its six-month special rate remains at 4.49 percent.

It is also increasing the rates it pays on term deposits by between 15 basis points and 40 basis points.

The three-year rate is now 4.4 percent, which the bank said was an 18-month high.

ANZ managing director for personal banking Grant Knuckey said it was a response to rising wholesale interest rates.

“Since the fixed rate changes we made in February, wholesale rates have continued to rise across all terms.”

Knuckey said customers were still seeing the benefit of earlier cuts to interest rates.

“Seventy-eight percent of ANZ’s fixed home loans are now on rates below 5 percent, a significant shift from the end of 2024 when fewer than 10 percent of loans were on rates below 5 percent.”

Economists and forecasters have been split on the likely outlook for rates.

While tension in the Middle East is likely to be a damper on the economy, it is also expected to fuel inflation.

Earlier, Squirrel chief executive David Cunningham said there could be merit in fixing for six months, on the assumption that the economy would be weak enough that the official cash rate was unlikely to rise in that time.

But Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said two-year rates were offering good levels of certainty at reasonable prices.

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/biggest-bank-raises-interest-rates/

Source: Radio New Zealand

A nationwide outage is affecting some 2degrees mobile customers, preventing them from making or receiving calls.

The company confirmed the outage, which is listed as ‘under repair’ in a network status update on its website at 3.12pm on Wednesday.

“We know some 2degrees customers are having difficulties making calls on their mobiles. We’re sorry for the hassle and rest assured our technicians are working hard to fix this for you.”

It is not known how many customers are impacted.

More to come.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/nationwide-outage-impacting-2degrees-mobile-customers/

Source: Radio New Zealand

• Economic growth estimated at 0.3 percent in three months ended December, annual growth 1.5 percent
• Primary sector, tourism industries the best; manufacturing flat, construction weak.
• Figures are expected to confirm economy was turning corner
• Historic numbers have been rendered almost irrelevant by Middle East conflict
• The conflict at best will slow recovery, at worst derail it
• RBNZ faces a dilemma – support growth or fight inflation

The economy is expected to have shown improving growth at the end of last year, in a set of historic numbers rendered almost irrelevant by the Middle East conflict.

Economists expect gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of economic growth – rose around 0.3 percent in the three months ended December, compared to the Reserve Bank’s February forecast of 0.5 percent. The annual rate is forecast to have risen to 1.5 percent.

Kiwibank economist Sabrina Delgado said the numbers would be stale.

“To be honest, it’s probably going to be one of the most dated GDP report cards in recent memory.”

She said the growth numbers were always delayed, but the escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the impact of rising prices, supply chain disruptions and the like had changed the picture entirely.

For the record, the numbers are expected to show the primary sector and tourism related industries doing well, manufacturing broadly flat, and construction weak.

“It was another quarter of strong visitor arrivals with plenty of indicators pointing to a lift in transport, arts and recreation, and retail trade and accommodation,” Delgado said.

That was then, this is now

ASB senior economist Kim Mundy said the data would confirm the economic direction of travel, although growth was not as vigorous as the previous quarter’s 1.1 percent. The per capita growth measure was expected to be positive for the second quarter in a row, reflecting better household finances.

But the conflict has changed that.

“The economic consequences for New Zealand from the war depend on how long it lasts, but so far, the risks to economic growth are firmly skewed to the downside,” she said.

The risks were clearly being driven by the surge in oil prices, which have already driven pump prices and would flow through to the price of other goods and services, giving an inevitable lift to inflation.

Treasury has forecast a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year if the conflict persists, a forecast some see as too conservative.

The inflation spike and softening economic performance give the Reserve Bank (RBNZ) a dilemma – to tackle inflation, implying interest rises or to support the economy with “accommodative” interest rates.

Economists do not expect the RBNZ to have any kneekerk rate reaction to the price spikes at its 8 April statement, and ANZ senior economist Matthew Gault said a softish GDP number might have the central bank seeing more slack in the economy, and therefore more capacity to absorb price rises.

“However, we wouldn’t want to overplay this given the uncertain outlook, and also recalling that annual inflation at 3.1 percent isn’t coming from an entirely comfortable starting point.”

Delgado said it was not just the inflation spike, but the impact on sentiment and demand.

“It’s yet another wave of uncertainty for Kiwi households and businesses. And there is a real risk that it derails our recovery in the same way Trump’s liberation day tariffs did last year.”

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/one-of-the-most-dated-gdp-report-cards-in-recent-memory/

Source: Radio New Zealand

Energy Minister Shane Jones says there is no need for fuel restrictions at this stage, as the government provides the latest update on stocks.

And the latest data shows New Zealand continues to hold “healthy levels of petrol, diesel and jet fuel” according to Finance Minister Nicola Willis.

“As at midnight on Sunday 15 March, combined petrol, diesel and jet fuel stocks equated to about 49 days of cover nationwide, including fuel held onshore in storage terminals and fuel already on ships bound for New Zealand,” Willis said.

That was slightly down from last week, but Willis explained the change reflected normal patterns of consumption.

“They are not a sign of supply disruption.”

Willis said fuel supply is inherently dynamic, with stock levels fluctuating week to week as it was consumed and new shipments arrived.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment will now also report on the pipeline of fuel shipments on their way to New Zealand.

More than a week’s worth of fuel was scheduled to arrive in the coming days.

Jones said the government was working with industry to strengthen the frequency, quality and timeliness of fuel stock and shipping data.

“This is critical to ensuring we can identify emerging risks early and plan appropriately.”

His expectation was that fuel companies were responsive and continuing to work constructively with the government as the situation evolved.

“All indications are, so far, that New Zealand is well-placed to deal with the fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“I want to be clear that at this stage, there is no need for fuel restrictions. Introducing rationing or restriction measures before there is clear evidence of a genuine shortage won’t create more fuel in the system.”

Jones said if the situation changed, the government would communicate that information quickly, along with plans in place to deal with any issues.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/fuel-stock-down-but-not-unusually-so-nicola-willis/

Source: Radio New Zealand

Shoppers are bracing for more food price rises, but the Grocery Commissioner has put supermarkets on notice about their margins.

Foodstuffs NZ managing director Chris Quin told Morning Report that there was likely to be pressure on food prices as conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices. Food prices were already up 4.5 percent year-on-year in February, before the impact began to be felt.

Quin said while it was hard to say at this point exactly how large the impact would be, it would become more of a problem the longer the conflict continued.

He said Foodstuffs was hearing from suppliers that they were under pressure too.

Grocery Commissioner Pierre van Heerden told Midday Report that he had told supermarkets that the Commerce Commission’s expectation was that if prices increased, they dropped as soon as they could as well, and that supermarkets were not seeking additional margin.

“Discussions with suppliers about the pressure they are facing should be done in good faith, as per the grocery supply code.”

He said supermarkets had indicated that as of yet, the additional cost was not being passed on.

“It’s dependent on how long this war continues, how long they can do that.”

Van Heerden said grocery margins had come down a bit in recent years and then stabilised.

“I would expect to see them stable or come down,” he said.

There was increasing competition in Auckland, he said, but other parts of the country were still only served by the duopoly.

The Commerce Commission is currently running an anonymous survey of supermarket suppliers to check for any concerns in the sector. He said small and medium suppliers were often scared to raise issues.

One shopper, Delwyn, said she was now spending about $500 a week on food for her family of five. She had to shift to chicken and pork mince instead of beef, which has risen [. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/589814/mince-records-biggest-annual-increase-since-data-began more than 20 percent] in a year in price

She said supermarket shopping could be a depressing and disheartening experience.

Earlier, Gemma Rasmussen, Consumer NZ’s head of advocacy, told RNZ that she was concerned about the potential for supermarkets to push up prices amid the conflict.

She said when Cyclone Gabrielle hit the Hawkes Bay, she spoke to a producer who provided an example of a produce item that was affected by the floods.

“This resulted in the store price going from $3.50 a kg to $9 to $14.

“They said, if it’s sold for $3.50 retail, the supermarket is buying it for around $1.99 wholesale. It ended up reaching $4.50 wholesale, but despite this, it ended up being sold in the supermarkets for as high as $14.

“One supplier spoke of an instance when the margin a major supermarket made on a frozen product was close to 60 percent. He’s currently selling frozen produce with an alternative retailer who is ‘a dream to work with’ and takes only a 25 percent margin.”

She said the country could do well to look at what Australia was doing to moderate supermarket prices.

“From 1 July 2026, it will introduce a specific excessive pricing regime for very large supermarkets that will ban prices considered excessive in relation to supply cost plus a reasonable margin. If one of the big players breaches these rules, it will face penalties of up to A$10 million, three times the benefit gained, or 10 percent of turnover.

“In effect, this is a direct attempt to curb price gouging and hold major supermarkets accountable where mark-ups are excessive and unjustified.

“New Zealand could benefit from a similar regime. Long-term structural reform has so far done little to meaningfully reduce supermarket pricing pressure, and with cost-of-living concerns continuing, households remain exposed to pricing that may be difficult to justify.”

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/grocery-commissioner-puts-supermarkets-on-notice/

Source: Radio New Zealand

Banks are moving interest rates higher, but the right term to pick depends a lot on how you think the economy will fare through the rest of this year.

BNZ on Wednesday increased its 18-month rate by five basis points, to 4.69 percent. Its two-year rate lifted by 20 to 4.89 percent, its three-year rate by 30 to 5.29 percent, its four-year rate by 30 to 5.49 percent and the five-year rate to 5.69 percent.

A day earlier, Westpac said it was increasing its rates, too. The one-year rate lifted by 10 basis points to 4.59 percent, and the two-year and three-year rates by 30 basis points to 5.19 percent and 5.29 percent, respectively.

It comes on the back of rising wholesale interest rates, which drive what it costs banks to borrow the money they lend.

The two-year rate has lifted from about 2.6 percent at the end of February to more than 2.8 percent.

Squirrel chief executive David Cunningham said although economists were split on whether the conflict in the Middle East would mean lower interest rates because of the impact on the economy, or higher interest rates because of the impact on prices, the markets were pricing in hikes.

“Ultimately, what the market prices is what flows through to the mortgage rates. We’ve really seen the pass-through of much higher swap rates, and so the banks naturally protect their margins and lift mortgage rates.”

He said other banks were likely to follow.

“The lowest point on the curve now is the six-month rate… if you take the six-month rate, it’s much lower right now, but you’re betting on interest rates not increasing, you’re almost betting against the market and taking the risk that they won’t be as high as the market’s pricing.”

Six month rates are available from about 4.49 percent, although some of the main banks are also offering one-year rates at that level, too.

Cunningham said if people thought markets had got ahead of themselves, it could be worth taking a shorter fix. “I’d probably go with six months on the basis that it feels to me like the market’s gone all gloom, and if anything, we’re going to unquestionably have a weaker economy because of the Middle East conflict.

“When it finishes, the oil price comes back down to the same level.

“Eventually, the world has a habit of sorting itself out, then the inflationary threats sort of disappear.”

He said people would need to consider their own circumstances and how they could cope with an increase, if interest rates did move higher.

But Infometrics chief forecaster Gareth Kiernan said there was “so much risk to the upside on lots of bad stuff at the moment”.

“Even though the two-year is a bit higher… in a world of uncertainty, paying a bit more in the short term to lock in at 5 percent-ish for two years is probably not a bad thing in my view.”

He said anyone who fixed for six months could be underestimating the chance of interest rates rising later this year.

“Financial markets would tend to back me up on that in terms of what swap rates and longer-term rates have done over the last few weeks.”

He said he expected a lift in the official cash rate in September.

“I guess the difficulty for the Reserve Bank is they’re trying to weigh up the negative effects on growth from higher fuel prices versus the effects of higher fuel prices on inflation more generally.

“We still have the view that businesses are more in a mindset to pass that kind of thing on than they were a decade ago… the Reserve Bank probably has to push back against that more than might otherwise be the case.”

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/interest-rates-rise-so-whats-the-best-strategy-now/

Source: Radio New Zealand

Consumer confidence slipped in the March quarter as global uncertainty made households more nervous about the economic outlook.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.8 points to 94.7. A level below 100 indicates pessimists outweigh optimists.

Westpac senior economist Satish Ranchhod said the survey was conducted in the first two weeks of March, when the Middle East war took hold.

“Against that increasingly uncertain global backdrop, households have grown a little more nervous about the economic outlook,” he said.

“However, at the time we spoke to households, many will not have seen the full impact of the conflict or experienced the rise in fuel prices.”

Ranchhod said the longer the war went on, the economy would see more disruptions and lead to more pressure on households.

“Many households actually told us that their financial position had improved over the past year, and that lifted spending appetites in recent months,” he said.

“However, cost-of-living pressures are picking up again, led by sharp increases in fuel prices.”

Confidence was highest in Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay, followed by Auckland, with both regions sneaking into optimism territory above 100.

Taranaki/Manawatū-Whanganui was the most pessimistic region.

“Women remain much more pessimistic than men and their confidence has dropped this quarter by 4.7 points, down to an index score of 85.9. In contrast, men have experienced a small rise in confidence of 1.5 points to 104.1,” said Imogen Rendall, market research director at McDermott Miller.

“Looking ahead to next year, both men and women have similar expectations for their personal finances, with around a quarter expecting to be worse off.”

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/consumers-nervous-about-economic-outlook-amid-war-in-middle-east/

Source: Radio New Zealand

Property investors say new research shows that they contribute significant amounts to the country’s economy – but not everyone is convinced.

Work by Infometrics, commissioned by the New Zealand Property Investors Federation, showed that private residential property investors contributed $24.8 billion to gross domestic product, or 5.9 percent of GDP, and sustained 126,000 full-time equivalent jobs.

Federation advocacy manager Matt Ball said it directly countered the narrative that property investors were unproductive.

“Providing rental housing doesn’t just produce economic activity, it’s an enabler of economic activity throughout the economy,” he said.

“A well-functioning rental market allows workers, students, and families to live where they need to be. Without private investors providing most rental properties, the economy simply wouldn’t operate effectively.”

Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said investors were often thought of as one singular group but there was a clear difference between speculators and property investors more generally.

“What we’ve found is that not only is there a substantial level of economic contribution and workforce that are indirectly supported by property investment in New Zealand, but the work that’s coming through, it does provide economic value in terms of places for people to live.

“The new builds that come through, the maintenance and repair spend, that’s a lot of continual year-on-year activity that emerges in the economy.

“That’s not what I think people think of when they think of property investors.”

He said investors spent $4.1 billion in the year on maintenance and improvements.

But Council of Trade Unions policy director Craig Renney said if rental housing was owned by people who lived in it, that would generate maintenance work, too.

“Let’s assume someone buys a unit of housing and they have it as a private rental and then they replace the kitchen, great, that creates GDP. But that’s making an assumption that if it was in private ownership as an owner occupied property it wouldn’t do the same thing, which is clearly not a valid thing to hold true.

“A private owner might well maintain it to a higher standard than a landlord.”

Ball said it would not be the case that the properties were all otherwise owner-occupied.

“The rental sector exists and always will, it’s just a question of how big it is.”

Olsen said in some cases there would be an element of displacement.

“But you’re still getting a fairly large amount of work that comes out sort of just constantly year on year.”

He said the research did not take into account what investment activity did to property values.

He said first-home buyers tended not to buy the cheapest properties and investors were sometimes in a different part of the market.

“The sort of flow on effects through to other parts of the economy are important and we see that probably most in terms of the sort of employment effects… we calculated that 109 different industries do see some sort of effect.

“It’s concentrated particularly around construction and given that as a large employer that’s important. But it does go through to other areas and one of the reasons that we approached the analysis the way we did was to try and provide that broader scope of what’s the sort of flow-on effects.

“It’s not just the immediate impact of property investment at day one, it’s where does that go? You know, if you’ve got those 126,000 workers that are supported by property investment, 5 percent out of the workforce, where do they spend their money?

“And then you’ve got the nearly $11 billion or so that was coming through on new builds.”

But Shamubeel Eaqub, chief economist at Simplicity, said there were wider questions to ask, and any industry could be portrayed as being large when set out in the same way.

“The issue to consider is the necessity – provision of housing – versus the margin – where additional capital goes in the economy.

“I don’t think the critique has ever been that no property ownership is good. It’s whether we have disproportionate allocation of capital – we do – that distorts the market and creates efficiency and equity issues.”

Ball said the report had been commissioned to address claims that providing rental accommodation was “unproductive speculation”, or people just buying and selling houses for profit.

“The report shows it’s not.”

Sign up for Money with Susan Edmunds, a weekly newsletter covering all the things that affect how we make, spend and invest money

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/investment-property-report-sparks-questions/

Source: Radio New Zealand

The NZX is a small exchange, and it’s had a difficult stretch, but despite global events there may be hope on the horizon.

Once again global events have filtered down to New Zealand and hit our stock market – and our KiwiSaver balances.

But Kiwi investors in the NZX are used to bad news.

“Got to be honest, it’s had a tough five years,” said RNZ business reporter Jeffrey Halley.

“Its total return for the last five years is just under 1.7 percent. And in 2025 it actually made 3.3 percent, but it’s down about 2.6 percent in the year to date, the three months that we’ve seen in 2026, so it’s really been pretty flat.

“Now for context, over the last five years, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have returned around 85, 90 percent.

“It’s absolutely awful and there’s no sugarcoating that.”

Halley said we can blame the pandemic and the recession that followed, as well as the fact that we don’t have tech companies or many high-end manufacturing companies listed.

“Our NZX is really made up of sort of what you might describe as legacy industries – there’s utilities and telcos and some manufacturers, some shops and some airlines. It’s not technology and that’s what you can really point your finger at.”

But there may be hope on the horizon.

Anna De Souza is head of origination at the NZX and her job involves helping companies list. She can’t say how many companies are likely to list this year, because “the deal is never done until the company comes to market” but things are looking positive.

“I would say that at this stage the pipeline is probably the strongest it’s been in a really long time. We have several companies which are currently heavily underway in looking at that IPO [initial public offering] market.

“We’ve got strong interest from overseas entities looking to take a secondary listing on NZX as well as other small to mid-cap companies who are in the process and having strong conversations with NZX about taking that step.

“The last six months has actually been quite a great period for NZX. Over the last six months we’ve had five new companies list on the NZX and two have been this year.

“Both of those companies has a really strong start to trading.”

Those two are Tāiko Critical Minerals, which came to market earlier this month, and Rua Gold.

In today’s episode of The Detail, we look back at the NZX’s performance over the last several years, what needs to change, whether there’s a future for a local exchange.

Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail here.

You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on Facebook or following us on Twitter.

Sign up for Ngā Pitopito Kōrero, a daily newsletter curated by our editors and delivered straight to your inbox every weekday.

– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand

LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/18/the-future-of-the-nzx/