Author: MIL OSI Publisher

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Research associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

With nine months to go, how much can opinion polls tell us about the general election on November 7? Short answer: not much.

Based solely on polls, no one could have predicted the past three elections this early in the year they were held. Trends shifted over the subsequent months, and events (especially COVID in 2020) intervened to shake things up.

Each poll is a snapshot of past public opinion – and it’s out of focus, due to statistically inevitable sampling error. A sample of 1,000 people won’t exactly resemble the whole eligible population, and the percentage of “undecided” voters often goes unreported.

Researchers have an incentive to produce results that are as accurate as possible, but statistical variance happens. Each poll is an estimate. And a small variation between two polls by one or two percentage points is “noise”, not “signal”.

We get a picture of how party preferences have shifted by looking at trends across a number of polls. But past trends aren’t a sound guide to future trends.

What are recent polls telling us?

The Research Association New Zealand’s Political Polling Code requires that projections of the numbers of seats for each party “should state that polls do not predict – they measure a point in time”.

I’d add that no one can “measure” opinions in the precise ways we measure distances and times. An opinion isn’t an object in space.

So, what can we say recent polls indicate, rather than measure?

They seem to show that if an election had been held recently, National would have won fewer party votes than in the 2023 election. Labour may have done better than National, but been let down by potential coalition partners the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.

It’s unclear whether or not that hypothetical election could have led to a change of government. Polls held in the weeks immediately before elections are normally pretty close to the election results. But voter turnout can upset that.

A representative sample of eligible people in a survey may not demographically match the population that actually casts their votes.

Unexpectedly high turnout in 2020, for instance, meant polls in the month before the election underestimated Labour and overestimated National.

All the same, political observers can use polls as indicators of where things have been heading. As I write, none of the parties, except NZ First, would be pleased with their recent polling, on average.

NZ First has had results of 9% or more, improving on its previous election result of 6.1%. Labour’s gradual rise over 2025 appeared to be at the expense of the two smaller left-wing parties, however.

Do polls influence election results?

Opinion polls can have self-fulfilling or “bandwagon” effects on people’s voting behaviour. But there’s no A-causes-B theory that allows us to predict whether, or by how much, that will happen. The effects could go in different directions for different people.

If polls show one candidate is way ahead, it may motivate me to vote for that person (to join the bandwagon). Or I might vote for another candidate (to support the underdog). Or I might not vote at all (as it’s a forgone conclusion).

In a Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) election, a party that’s been polling below the 5% threshold and isn’t likely to win an electorate seat may get caught in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Reluctant to “waste” their votes on that party, people may choose another – making it even harder for that party.

People also ask: who will work with whom in government? They may reason that a vote for one party means effectively voting to help put another party into government as well – which may or may not seem desirable.

Because of the potential for polls to lead public opinion rather than follow it, New Zealand bans the publication of polls on election day itself but not during the two-week advance-voting period.

But blackout periods are common in Europe and Latin America, and may be for as long as two weeks, as in Italy.

There’s also a risk that an unscrupulous actor could publish a false poll result in an effort to shift choices or suppress turnout, and that’s one reason why the research industry has a (self-regulated) code of conduct.

Past trends or future outcomes?

In a free society, however, the state shouldn’t prohibit research firms from doing surveys, or media from reporting the results.

Polls can be informative for voters, and a useful part of the democratic process. They also give the parties feedback about their performance (or perceived performance) between elections.

But they can be unhelpful when framed by media in sensationalist or biased ways.

People should be left to make up their minds about which candidate or party best represents them, rather than view an election as a contest narrated in terms of who’s up and who’s down.

In the end, we should read the polls and the media critically, and not take things on trust. It always pays to check, for example, who’s done the survey, who’s sponsored it and what the methodology was.

Above all, remember that opinion polls only indicate past trends; they don’t predict future outcomes.

Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Polls are snapshots, not predictions: how to read them critically this election year – https://theconversation.com/polls-are-snapshots-not-predictions-how-to-read-them-critically-this-election-year-274531

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/02/03/polls-are-snapshots-not-predictions-how-to-read-them-critically-this-election-year-274531/

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

The mushrooms spread out on the chopping board seemed normal enough. They were rich and dense, and had a strong earthy aroma. In the saucepan, they melted – along with the cheese – to form a creamy pasta sauce.

A quick taste test proved they were delicious. The rich lion’s mane flavour immediately shone through.

This was the first meal we made with these unique mushrooms. They were gourmet, but not from any grocery store you can find on Earth.

These special fungi had travelled to space, lived aboard the International Space Station for more than a month, returned safely to Earth, and eventually came back to Australia in 2025.

Mushrooms launch into space

In August 2024, we launched a set of 36 small vials into space aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket. In these vials were three edible fungi species in the form of mycelium – small file filaments that act like the root network of mushrooms.

The species we tested were lion’s mane (Hericium erinaceus), turkey’s tail (Trametes versicolor) and cordyceps (Cordyceps militaris). These have shown benefits for brain function, gut health, and immune health – all important areas for long term space flight.

This experiment was our sixth payload to the International Space Station (ISS), thanks to the microgravity experimentation program we lead at Swinburne University of Technology.

It was designed and prototyped with the help of 12 high school students from Haileybury College in Melbourne. And it was made possible thanks to professional mushroom growers and suppliers who ensured the fungal strains were not only food grade but healthy enough to survive the extreme environment of space.

Our fungi may have stayed on the ISS with astronauts. But the mushrooms’ experience was very different to the astronauts’. Science experiments have special storage areas depending on what is being done and how much time astronauts have to be involved. Our mycelium was sealed up tight in special packaging to help keep them at a stable temperature and to ensure they weren’t damaged.

They stayed like that for close to a month, before they returned with the change of crew on the ISS.

We didn’t get much in the way of updates while our mushrooms were travelling – just some pictures and videos from NASA of the outside of the safely sealed experiment.

On their return, we waited with bated breath to see if they would survive once opened.

Mushrooms return to Earth

When our mycelium returned to Earth, and eventually Australia, they got a new home in rich, nutritious substrate. We then moved it into grow kits so we could watch and see whether any fruiting bodies (that is, mushrooms) would appear.

We created several grow boxes and placed them in different environments to see what conditions were best – from kitchen benches, to staff room tables, to laboratory fridges.

To our delight, within a few days we saw signs of the mushrooms emerging and within a week we had beautiful lion’s mane ready to be cooked up and enjoyed. Once they were ready, we harvested them and tried different recipes.

As well as eating these mushrooms, we’re also in the process of analysing them closely. But we can say now that the reduced gravity environment did not negatively impact our mycelium. In fact, they seem to be so happy that they continued to produce several rounds of mushrooms.

Mushrooms for long-term space missions

Artemis II – NASA’s crewed mission to the moon – is right around the corner. But there is still a lot that we need to understand to provide the best conditions for astronauts as they venture further into space than ever before.

For example, how will we continue to nutritionally support astronauts for weeks to months on long duration missions?

We know that a low gravity environment has a profound impact on human bodies, and one of the best ways to support astronauts in orbit is with nutritional foods.

Another outstanding question we need to answer is whether food produced in space environments be affected by radiation and other stresses, rendering it less valuable.

Our work – and these special mushrooms – are helping to provide crucial answers.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. We ate space mushrooms and survived to tell the tale – https://theconversation.com/we-ate-space-mushrooms-and-survived-to-tell-the-tale-274112

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/02/03/we-ate-space-mushrooms-and-survived-to-tell-the-tale-274112/

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Associate Professor and Clinical Academic Gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University

If you’ve ever been constipated you may have tried laxatives. They’re easy to get without a prescription and often help get things moving.

Certainly a lot of people use laxatives and some older people are very reliant on them to help with bowel function.

But you might have heard it’s not a good idea to take them over the long term. Even though serious complications from chronic laxative use are rare, they do happen. That’s why, whenever possible, long-term laxative use should be guided and monitored by a doctor.

Types of laxatives

There are five main types of laxatives (all are oral):

1. bulk-forming laxatives (also known as fibre laxatives), which absorb water to form a soft, bulky stool and prompt normal contraction of bowel muscles. Common brands include Metamucil and Benefiber

2. osmotic laxatives, which draw water into the colon to allow easier passage of stool. Common brands include Osmolax, Actilax and Movicol

3. stool softeners such as docusate (brand name Coloxyl), which acts like a detergent and allows fat and water to mix in with hard stool – this makes it softer and easier to pass

4. stimulant laxatives, which trigger rhythmic contractions of the bowel muscle. Common brands include Dulcolax, Bisalax and Senna

5. lubricant laxatives, which coat the bowel and soften the stool. A common brand is Parachoc.

Starting a laxative

Before starting a laxative you should try dietary and lifestyle changes such as:

• eating more foods with fibre in them, such as kiwifruit, corn, oats and brown rice
• drinking more water
• doing more exercise.

But if constipation persists, you might think about a laxative. Consider starting with gentler options, such as the bulk-forming laxatives or stool softeners, and implement those dietary and lifestyle changes listed above.

It’s a good idea to see your local doctor when starting a laxative; constipation may be a sign of something more concerning, especially if there are other symptoms such as rectal bleeding.

Your doctor can also advise whether laxatives might interact with any other medications you take.

Do laxatives cause a ‘lazy colon’?

Probably not. So where does this idea come from?

A case report published in the 1960s described bowel changes in a patient who had been taking stimulant laxatives for more than 40 years.

When the colon was examined, doctors noticed a reduced number of key cells in the colon. This sparked concern about whether long-term use of stimulant laxatives could result in damage to the gut, culminating in a “lazy colon” (also known as a cathartic colon). This is when the colon becomes an inert tube with no real muscle function to push along stool.

However, a later review of more than 70 publications describing 240 cases of stimulant laxative abuse found no cases of cathartic colon reported. Researchers concluded the prior cathartic colon cases might have been linked to a laxative called podophyllin that is now no longer recommended.

A review of 43 publications on the safety of stimulant laxatives discovered many of the studies were of poor quality, with small sample size. Confounding factors, such as medications and age, were often not being taken into account.

It found no good evidence chronic use of stimulant laxatives damages the gut.

That said, there are other good reasons not to take laxatives regularly and over the long term unless advised by a doctor who is monitoring your progress.

Gut symptoms and electrolytes

Laxative abuse is when someone takes laxatives to lose weight through frequent and repeated use of laxatives.

The most common symptom of laxative abuse is diarrhoea, which can mean abdominal cramps, nausea, vomiting and weight loss.

But laxative abuse can also disrupt the body’s electrolytes.

The main electrolyte in poo is potassium. As the body loses more and more potassium through diarrhoea, you can end up with lower blood potassium levels.

This can lead to:

• generalised muscle weakness
• heart complications
• changes in heart rhythm
• in extreme cases, stopping your heart beat, which can lead to death.

A 2020 systematic review of case reports found that laxative abuse can cause mild to severe cases of cardiac complications.

Laxative abuse can also lower other electrolytes, such as calcium and magnesium, leading to painful muscle contractions. Occasionally the kidney can be severely affected by chronic laxative abuse.

If you take just the recommended dose of laxatives, though, the risk of serious electrolyte complications is extremely low.

Depression, dementia and mental health

Two UK studies that examined a data set of approximately half a million participants found regular laxative use was associated with a higher risk of developing depression and dementia.

One theory is chronic laxative abuse could alter what’s known as the microbiome-gut-brain-axis (the way microbiota and the brain communicate) and lead to a higher risk of conditions such as depression and dementia.

Laxative abuse is commonly associated with eating disorders, so it’s important anyone found to be abusing laxatives also undergo a comprehensive mental health assessment. A plan might be needed to address the broader problem.

Safe when taken properly

Laxatives are obtained easily without a prescription and are very widely used in the community. They are certainly helpful for treating chronic constipation.

However, they can cause side effects such as diarrhoea and electrolyte imbalances. Long-term use and overuse can lead to problems.

It’s always a good idea to consult your doctor before starting laxatives, especially if you have other medical issues or are taking other medications.

Vincent Ho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why regularly taking laxatives over the long term can be a bad idea – https://theconversation.com/why-regularly-taking-laxatives-over-the-long-term-can-be-a-bad-idea-269404

Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/02/03/why-regularly-taking-laxatives-over-the-long-term-can-be-a-bad-idea-269404/