Landmark Study Shows Exercise Outweighs Alcohol in Predicting Long Term Survival – Exercise NZ

Source: Exercise NZ

“This research challenges a lot of the conventional wisdom around alcohol and health,”

“It reinforces two important truths: there is no safe level of alcohol for health, and being physically active is one of the most powerful things people can do to improve their long-term wellbeing.”

“One of the most striking findings is that low fitness was consistently linked to poorer outcomes, even among people who didn’t drink at all,”

“By contrast, those who remained physically active experienced better long-term health outcomes across all alcohol-intake groups, including occasional drinkers. While exercise isn’t a license to drink, this research underlines the powerful role staying physically fit plays in protecting long-term health.”

“Physical activity is one of the most accessible and effective tools we have to improve population health. If we are serious about prevention, longevity and wellbeing, movement needs to be a central part of the conversation”

New landmark international research is reshaping how we think about health, revealing that physical fitness is one of the strongest predictors of long-term survival, often more influential than alcohol consumption patterns.

The peer-reviewed HUNT Study from Norway, published in Sports Medicine in December 2025, analysed data from more than 24,000 adults followed over nearly 17 years. Researchers found that changes in cardiorespiratory fitness over time were a stronger predictor of all-cause mortality than changes in alcohol intake, with people who maintained higher fitness levels experiencing significantly lower risk of early death across all drinking categories.

Importantly, this research highlights physical fitness as a powerful protective factor that plays a critical, and often underestimated, role in long-term wellbeing.

“This research challenges a lot of the conventional wisdom around alcohol and health,” said ExerciseNZ Chief Executive Richard Beddie. “It reinforces two important truths: there is no safe level of alcohol for health, and being physically active is one of the most powerful things people can do to improve their long-term wellbeing.”

Key findings from the study include:

Fitness matters most: Participants who stayed “fit”, defined as above the lowest 20 percent of cardiorespiratory fitness for their age and sex, had significantly lower risk of early death, regardless of whether they abstained from alcohol or drank within recommended limits.
Low fitness carried higher risk: Individuals who remained unfit had a 46–68 percent higher mortality risk compared with fit participants, even when they did not drink alcohol.
Alcohol risk remains: Increased alcohol intake over time was associated with higher mortality risk, reinforcing evidence that alcohol offers no protective health benefit.
Abstention is best for alcohol-related harm: People who did not drink had lower mortality risk than those who consumed small amounts, challenging the long-held belief that “one or two drinks a day” is good for health.

“One of the most striking findings is that low fitness was consistently linked to poorer outcomes, even among people who didn’t drink at all,” said Beddie. “By contrast, those who remained physically active experienced better long-term health outcomes across all alcohol-intake groups, including occasional drinkers. While exercise isn’t a license to drink, this research underlines the powerful role staying physically fit plays in protecting long-term health.”

ExerciseNZ says the findings add to a growing body of international evidence showing that physical activity not only improves overall health, but also helps buffer the impact of other lifestyle risk factors, reducing the likelihood of chronic disease and premature death.

“Physical activity is one of the most accessible and effective tools we have to improve population health. If we are serious about prevention, longevity and wellbeing, movement needs to be a central part of the conversation,” says Beddie.