PM Edition: Here are the top 10 business articles on LiveNews.co.nz for March 25, 2026 – Full Text
Banking – Banking Ombudsman urges extreme caution over use of crypto ATMs
March 25, 2026
Source: Banking Ombudsman Scheme
LiveNews: https://livenews.co.nz/2026/03/25/banking-banking-ombudsman-urges-extreme-caution-over-use-of-crypto-atms/
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Bullying allegations against senior Corrections staffer raised more than a month ago
March 25, 2026
Source: Radio New Zealand
Corrections’ Commissioner of Custodial Services Leigh Marsh. Supplied / Corrections
Allegations of bullying against one of the most senior staff at Corrections were raised more than a month ago.
RNZ earlier revealed Corrections commissioner of custodial services Leigh Marsh was facing an employment investigation in relation to allegations of bullying.
On Wednesday, Corrections chief executive Jeremy Lightfoot confirmed the concerns were raised on February 15.
“No other formal concerns have been raised about this individual, and they have not previously been subject to an employment investigation.”
Do you know more? Email sam.sherwood@rnz.co.nz
After receiving the concerns, advice was sought from the human resources team and support was put in place for the staff member who raised the concerns, Lightfoot said.
“The decision was then taken to undertake a formal employment investigation.”
Lightfoot said it was important staff felt confident raising any concerns.
“And as an employer I have a duty of care to ensure the ongoing privacy and wellbeing of those involved.
“For these reasons, it would not be appropriate for us to provide further details about this employment matter at this time. I acknowledge the public interest in the conduct of our senior leaders and Corrections is committed to being transparent about the findings of this investigation at the appropriate time and in line with our obligations under the Official Information Act and Privacy Act.”
In response to questions about the inquiry into Marsh earlier this week Lightfoot told RNZ he expected “high standards of all our staff and take any allegations raised about their conduct extremely seriously”.
“Corrections can confirm that concerns have been raised about one senior leader that will be investigated by an external independent investigator.
“The concerns raised relate to alleged conduct around management processes and bullying within the employment relationship.”
The staff member who raised the concerns with Lightfoot was “being supported while this employment matter is ongoing”.
He also confirmed three operational deputy chief executives, including Marsh, would be undertaking six-month secondments into different DCE roles within Corrections.
“I had already been considering moving the operational DCEs into each other’s areas later this year. This is because I believe these secondments will allow each operational DCE to deepen their understanding of each other’s respective areas so we can continue building a coherent, cohesive organisation. Their employment agreements were developed to allow such secondments to take place.
“The decision to do this now was brought forward to ensure that a thorough and fair employment process for both parties in relation to the above complaint can be carried out.”
The secondment sees Marsh move to DCE of Pae Ora.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
LiveNews: https://livenews.co.nz/2026/03/25/bullying-allegations-against-senior-corrections-staffer-raised-more-than-a-month-ago/
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New Zealand is expensive, Reserve Bank economist says – here’s what we can do about it
March 25, 2026
Source: Radio New Zealand
RNZ / Quin Tauetau
New Zealand is an expensive country, Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway says, with many products priced well above the OECD average.
And some things – such as construction services, household utilities and some food items – are among the most expensive in the OECD.
Conway spoke to the National Financial Advisers Conference in Auckland on Wednesday.
He said inflation had been one of the most obvious economic disruptions over the past few years, particularly over the pandemic, when demand combined with a lack of supply sent inflation soaring at the sharpest rate in decades.
He said people were still asking why everything felt so expensive, even though inflation was much nearer the Reserve Bank’s targets than it had been.
Conway said, since the start of the pandemic, overall prices had risen by 26 percent and the price of some essentials had increased much more.
Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway Supplied
Wages rose 32 percent but that increase was probably not evenly felt – people who moved jobs were more likely to have received larger wage increases.
Conway said that for the past five years, one or more of a range of everyday household essentials that were hard to avoid had been increasing strongly in price at almost every point. “That included prices for council rates, construction services, some foods – including meat and butter, and insurance.
“Because households cannot easily avoid some of these costs, this has no doubt added to the sense of a ‘cost-of-living crisis’.”
RNZ / Unsplash
Rates, insurance and gas had jumped particularly in recent years.
Tobacco products were among the most expensive in the OECD and milk, cheese, eggs and fruit prices were well above the average. Seafood, clothing, and meat were slightly below average.
“For services, the price of construction in New Zealand is the highest in the OECD and more than double the average. This is undoubtedly a handbrake on housing and infrastructure development here. In fact, the price of ‘capital formation’ – which covers machinery, equipment and construction – is 70 percent above average in New Zealand and also the highest in the OECD. The price of housing services and utilities in New Zealand is also assessed as being the most expensive in the OECD.”
He said low and stable inflation mattered for the cost of living but it was not the whole story.
The price of construction in New Zealand is the highest in the OECD and more than double the average. Supplied/ Unsplash – Josh Olalde
Monetary policy – such as the official cash rate set by the Reserve Bank – could help to anchor prices but not make New Zealand affordable on its own. He acknowledged that inflation ended 2025 just above the Reserve Bank’s 1 percent to 3 percent target band and was likely to be more elevated because of the Middle East conflict.
He said what mattered for households was their purchasing power.
Before 2020, the purchasing power of wages in New Zealand was growing faster than the OECD average on the back of strong employment growth and favourable terms of trade.
“Today, while wage purchasing power is around average across all 38 OECD members countries, it is about 20 percent below the average of the more advanced OECD economies that we typically compare ourselves to.”
Productivity the key
For there to be continued sustained improvements in purchasing power, there would have to be more productivity, he said.
Real per capita income in New Zealand was below the OECD average, he noted. It had been about 80 percent of the average until the mid-2000s then increased to more than 95 percent by 2020.
“Since 2020, real income in New Zealand has fallen back to around 90 percent of the OECD average and the income gap vis-à-vis Australia has widened. Purchasing power, as measured by real income, has not kept pace with the rest of the OECD nor Australia since the beginning of the pandemic.”
Wages had declined less compared to the OECD average and were at best average, he said.
“Importantly, this is compared to all 38 current OECD member countries, which includes several emerging economies. Compared to the 30 OECD member countries in 2010, average incomes in New Zealand sit around 20 percent below the average.”
He said productivity growth would be the single most powerful determinant of higher real incomes and better purchasing power over the long run.
“New Zealand’s productivity performance leaves much to be desired and has lagged other OECD economies. Further, productivity growth in the New Zealand economy fell significantly following the global financial crisis and has been negative in the wake of the pandemic.
“While low and stable inflation is a key ingredient in lifting productivity and improving purchasing power, it is insufficient on its own. By anchoring prices, monetary policy creates the conditions for growth. But sustained gains in purchasing power require structural improvements in the economy.”
The conflict in the Middle East is a timely reminder of how quickly geopolitics can disrupt the global economy, Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway says. AFP / Atta Kenare
Measures to improve resilience
He said a more fragmented and unpredictable global economy would raise the stakes for ensuring New Zealand’s structural policies were resilient, adaptive and fit for purpose.
“We are in a new era of heightened geopolitical risk and persistent uncertainty, with the conflict in the Middle East a timely reminder of how quickly geopolitics can disrupt the global economy. At the same time, cross-country flows of trade, capital, and people are shifting, governments are becoming more interventionist, and the rules-based order that once underpinned global integration has weakened considerably.
“This is not a temporary shock that we can simply wait out. It’s a durable shift that makes the global economy more difficult and dangerous for small economies like New Zealand. We are more exposed to external shocks, fragile global supply chains, and shifts in global rules and norms over which we have little control.”
He said sustaining living standards would depend on structural policy settings that built resilience into the structure of the economy by encouraging flexibility, investment and adaption.
“A more resilient and flexible economy would mean monetary policy does not have to work as hard, or be as aggressive, to stabilise inflation as shocks wash through the economy.
“While monetary policy plays a critical role in responding to shocks, it cannot solve New Zealand’s ‘cost-of-living crisis’. Low and stable inflation underpins economic stability and is critical for sustained gains in purchasing power. But monetary policy does not create prosperity directly. It creates the conditions in which prosperity can endure.
“Improving the purchasing power of New Zealand households requires improved productivity. Productivity gains support stronger real wage growth, while competitive markets help keep price increases in check… stronger productivity raises the economy’s speed limit – allowing faster growth without inflation. A more resilient and flexible economy also means monetary policy doesn’t need to be as aggressive to keep inflation stable when shocks hit.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/25/new-zealand-is-expensive-reserve-bank-economist-says-heres-what-we-can-do-about-it/
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The price of meth has been plunging in NZ. Are Mexican cartels driving the drop?
March 25, 2026
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wilkins, Professor of Policy and Health, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University
Methamphetamine has become dramatically cheaper over the past seven years, even as authorities report record seizures, according to the latest New Zealand Drug Trends Survey.
The annual online survey of over 8,800 people who use drugs shows wholesale prices of the illegal and harmful substance (per gram sold to dealers) have fallen by 41%, while street-level “point” prices (0.1 gram retail deals) have dropped by 27%.
Once adjusted for inflation, the declines are closer to 50%. A gram of meth that cost an average of $563 in 2017 now sells for about $253 in inflation-adjusted terms in 2025.
This trend is striking because retail prices of illegal drugs often remain unchanged for years. For example, a cannabis “tinny” (about 1–1.5 grams) has typically cost $20–25 in New Zealand for more than two decades, reflecting the need for quick and simple transactions.
The sustained price falls therefore point to deeper changes in how the methamphetamine market is operating. Australia has recently observed a similar pattern.
Importantly, the shift can’t be attributed to any changes in drug purity. Recent testing suggests average purity levels often exceed 70%, approaching the theoretical maximum of about 80% for the hydrochloride salt form.
In other words, methamphetamine is not only cheaper, but often highly potent.
Already, the drug is estimated to cause hundreds of millions of dollars in harm to New Zealand communities, through impacts to hospital emergency departments, mental health and drug treatment systems and social services – and to users themselves in terms of lives derailed and family relationships fractured.
All of this raises critical questions: what is driving these price drops, how long will they continue and what might they ultimately mean for meth’s social toll?
Competition, enforcement or demand?
We can point to several factors that might be contributing to the falling prices.
Illegal drug markets are often assumed to be controlled by organised crime groups who are able to keep prices high. But the widespread price declines across New Zealand – including in regions with the strongest gang presence – suggest the market remains competitive.
Could the price drops reflect sellers feeling they face less risk of arrest? Given New Zealand Police and Customs have been reporting record seizures every year since 2019, that doesn’t seem plausible.
In 2019, the law was changed to direct police not to arrest people found with small amounts of drugs unless it was in the public interest. While this may have reduced enforcement risk for users, it was not intended to change the situation for dealers selling grams.
If anything, the policy partly aimed to free up resources to focus on suppliers.
We might also assume that meth has simply become cheaper to make. With multiple ways to synthesise methamphetamine using different precursor chemicals, manufacturers may have found lower-cost methods over time.
But production costs can make up only a fraction of the final street price, with large mark-ups added along the distribution chain. That means even big savings in production may have little effect on retail prices.
Might the trend signal fewer buyers? Methamphetamine might well be reaching the end of its “product cycle” as cocaine gains popularity. Yet wastewater data show meth consumption doubled in late 2024 – hardly an indication of falling demand.
Are cartels the culprit?
The most convincing explanation lies away from New Zealand’s shores, in new global sources of methamphetamine supply.
New Zealand and Australia have traditionally sourced methamphetamine from lawless regions of Asia known as the Golden Triangle. More recently, however, growing seizures have been linked to Mexican drug cartels, often transiting through Canada.
Australian authorities say these cartels can supply methamphetamine at less than one-third the price of Asian producers and that about 70% of seized meth now originates from North America.
It may also explain the rising supply of cocaine in New Zealand, with Mexican cartels deeply involved in global cocaine trafficking. Methamphetamine trafficked from Mexico is also often routed through Pacific Island countries such as Fiji, Tonga and Samoa, which have strong trade, transport and cultural links with New Zealand.
On top of this, digital drug markets – including darknets and social media sales – may be lowering the cost of finding alternative sellers and better deals, increasing competition and pushing prices down.
This may also explain why methamphetamine is not the only drug to experience price declines in recent years.
We have also tracked substantial falls in the price of MDMA (ecstasy), a drug increasingly purchased via social media. Digital drug markets may also reduce the need for multiple layers of local distribution, lowering costs.
While we believe Mexican cartel supply is the most likely driver of methamphetamine price declines, the other explanations cannot be ruled out.
More research is needed to better understand the supply-and-demand implications and effects of changes in enforcement intensity, risk of violence and victimisation, production costs, price formation and modern digital drug markets.
Untangling these forces will be the focus of our future work, helping policymakers to respond more effectively to what remains one of New Zealand’s most damaging illegal drug.
– ref. The price of meth has been plunging in NZ. Are Mexican cartels driving the drop? – https://theconversation.com/the-price-of-meth-has-been-plunging-in-nz-are-mexican-cartels-driving-the-drop-277490
Evening Report: https://eveningreport.nz/2026/03/25/the-price-of-meth-has-been-plunging-in-nz-are-mexican-cartels-driving-the-drop-277490/
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Comprehensive Support for International Students to Bolster Hong Kong’s Talent Attraction and Retention
March 25, 2026
Source: Media Outreach
ManpowerGroup Greater China and Beacon Group Partner with FGA Trust and Payment Asia to Launch “Talent in HK” Program
From left to right: Ms. Lancy Chui, Senior Vice President of ManpowerGroup Greater China; Ms. June Leung, Founder of Beacon Group; Ms. Helen Chen, Chief Strategy Officer of FGA Trust
This forward-looking initiative is supported by Payment Asia, a leading payment platform in Hong Kong, providing streamlined payment channels. FGA Trust will serve as the third-party custodian. The program aims to establish an institutionalized, transparent, and collaborative ecosystem, providing end-to-end protection from education and academic support to life services and career consultancy, while injecting long-term momentum into Hong Kong’s strategy to attract and retain international talent.
As Hong Kong continues to attract top-tier students globally, many non-local students face challenges adapting to a new cultural environment upon arrival. Recently, there has been a rising trend in crimes targeting this demographic, including scams involving impersonation of government or academic institutions, as well as telecommunications and online fraud. These incidents pose substantial threats to talents’ personal and financial security, causing significant concern for their families.
In response to these social concerns and to reinforce the comprehensive security net for international students, ManpowerGroup, Beacon Group, and FGA Trust have initiated this program to provide stable, orderly support and ensure the long-term residency of talent in Hong Kong.
Holistic Talent Services: Strengthening Hong Kong’s Foundation as an International Hub
The “Talent in HK” program offers comprehensive life services for students and their families. Beacon Group will provide a long-term study plan spanning three to five years, including customized education, admissions services, profile enhancement, and application support. Simultaneously, ManpowerGroup will facilitate internships, visa arrangements, and long-term career development services.
Once a student receives an admission offer, parents can inject tuition and living expenses through Payment Asia’s official channels into a dedicated project account monitored by FGA Trust. This ensures financial security and the precise disbursement of funds. The entire process will be followed by an audit report, ensuring a smooth transition from campus to the workplace. The program’s website is expected to go live around mid-April this year, with official applications opening in May.
In an era of intensifying global competition for higher education and talent, Hong Kong remains a pivotal international financial and educational hub. Non-local students are not only a vital component of the education system but also a driving force for cross-cultural exchange and future professional talent. They are estimated to contribute over HK$10 billion in tuition fees annually, serving as a significant pillar of the local economy.
Multi-Party Collaboration: A New Paradigm for Talent Services
The core strength of the program lies in its innovative collaborative model, bringing together industry leaders:
- ManpowerGroup Greater China (2180.HK): As the exclusive career development partner of the project, ManpowerGroup will leverage its extensive network and expertise to provide career planning, internship matching, and employment guidance, bridging the gap between graduation and professional life, and help students to have a smooth transition from academies to careers.
- Beacon Group (parent company BExcellent Group Holdings Limited 1775.HK): As one of the initiators of the project with 37 years of experience in the education sector, Beacon Group will provide personalized academic consulting and profile enhancement, provide better guidance and adaptation for candidates to pursuit their study in Hong Kong. Its deep roots in the education sector help families navigate educational choices and avoid scams or unnecessary hurdles.
- FGA Trust (TCSP license: TC008341): As the structural architect and asset trustee, FGA Trust will establish a specialized trust framework with individual sub-accounts for each student. This ensures funds for tuition, housing, and living expenses are managed with clear traceability, mitigating risks of fraud or improper spending.
- Payment Asia: As the primary channel partner, Payment Asia provides secure and compliant collection channels, ensuring the seamless transfer of funds into the program’s dedicated accounts.
Long-Term Vision: Supporting Urban Competitiveness
Studying abroad is the starting point for talent development in Hong Kong. Proactive financial arrangements reduce uncertainty during status transitions and life settlement, increasing the willingness of talent to remain in the city long-term. Data suggests that initiatives like the Top Talent Pass Scheme (TTPS) continue to drive local consumption, with rents for small-to-medium residential units expected to rise by 5% this year.
Ms. Lancy Chui, Senior Vice President of ManpowerGroup Greater China, stated: “We understand the strong desire of non-local graduates to work in Hong Kong. By providing proactive career planning and internship arrangements, we can reduce uncertainty during their transition into the local workforce, helping them settle and contribute to Hong Kong’s market.”
Ms. June Leung, Founder of Beacon Group, noted: “Talent cultivation requires long-term education. We are delighted to initiate this program, integrating academic support with life security and career development to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking environment for talent growth.”
Ms. Helen Chen, Chief Strategy Officer of FGA Trust, added: “Protecting the financial security and well-being of international students is both a social responsibility and a key to consolidating Hong Kong’s status as an international education hub. This program ensures a seamless transition from study to employment, transforming international talent into a long-term driver for Hong Kong’s development.”
The launch of “Talent in HK” marks a significant step from fragmented support to a comprehensive ecosystem. Through institutional innovation and cross-sector collaboration, the program aims to provide a safe harbor for international students and their families, contributing to Hong Kong’s goal of becoming a global talent hub.
https://www.linkedin.com/company/fga-trust/
Hashtag: #FGA #Trust #Talent #Career
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.
– Published and distributed with permission of Media-Outreach.com.
LiveNews: https://livenews.co.nz/2026/03/25/comprehensive-support-for-international-students-to-bolster-hong-kongs-talent-attraction-and-retention/
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Tens of thousands lost to crypto ATM scams, ombudsman says
March 25, 2026
Source: Radio New Zealand
Several scams involved people depositing money through cryptocurrency ATMs. RNZ / Paris Ibell
A woman who withdrew $31,500 from her bank account and gave it to a scammer is one of two recent cases that have sparked a warning from the Banking Ombudsman about cryptocurrency ATMs.
Banking Ombudsman Nicola Sladden said she had investigated several scam cases where people had deposited money through the ATMs.
Crypto ATMs allow people to deposit cash and buy cryptocurrency, which is sent to a digital wallet. Transactions usually happen quickly and cannot easily be stopped or reversed once completed.
Sladden said it made them risky when used under pressure or at someone else’s direction.
She highlighted two cases, in which she said people believed they were following legitimate instructions but lost large amounts of money.
In April last year, a woman responded to a job ad online and, following instructions, went to her bank and withdrew $31,500, telling the teller it was for a car.
She put the money into a cryptocurrency wallet via a crypto ATM but later realised she had been scammed and asked the bank to reimburse her. She said it should have noticed her anxious and unusual behaviour.
The ombudsman scheme said it had to decide whether there was anything that should have caused the bank to suspect a scam.
“A bank must follow a customer’s transaction instructions unless it detects – or should have detected – warning signs of a possible scam. If it detects such warning signs, it must make inquiries about the transaction and, if warranted, warn the customer about the possibility of a scam before processing the transaction.”
It said there was nothing about what the customer told the bank that should have indicated a problem.
In another case, a man lost $65,000. He authorised payments to cryptocurrency merchants and withdrew cash from ATMs that he deposited in a crypto ATM.
The bank refused to reimburse him, saying he had authorised the payments.
Sladden said obvious red flags included requests to keep payments secret or give false information to a bank.
“People should independently verify who they are dealing with, and talk to someone they trust before making large or unusual payments.
“It’s important to stop and ask questions before taking any steps that might result in the loss of money.”
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/25/tens-of-thousands-lost-to-crypto-atm-scams-ombudsman-says/
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Investments – Upcoming Minimum Wage and KiwiSaver Changes – Effective 1 April 2026
March 25, 2026
Auckland, 25 March 2026: New minimum wage rates and KiwiSaver contribution changes will take effect across New Zealand from 1 April 2026, impacting employers, employees, and payroll processes nationwide.
Minimum Wage Increases
From 1 April, the Government has confirmed the following rates:
Adult Minimum Wage: $23.95 per hour
Starting‑Out Wage: $19.16 per hour
Training Wage: $19.16 per hour
These apply to all employees aged 16+, including part‑time, casual, fixed‑term, and remote workers. Minimum wage rules also extend to workers’ earning commissions or piece rates.
Training wage eligibility: Employees aged 20+ completing 60 credits annually toward an approved industry qualification.
Starting‑out eligibility: Workers aged 16 – 19 who meet criteria such as being new to employment or undertaking relevant training.
KiwiSaver Changes
Also from 1 April:
Default contribution rate increases from 3% to 3.5% (first stage of a phased rise to 4% in 2028).
Employees may opt down to 3%, but contributions reset to the default after 12 months.
16‑ and 17‑year‑olds who opt for KiwiSaver will now receive compulsory employer contributions.
Ashlea Maley, Associate Director – Operations, Peninsula New Zealand, said: “The current economic climate is placing significant pressure on small businesses, with many facing rising payroll obligations at a time when operating conditions are already tough. We’re seeing a noticeable increase in employers seeking guidance, as the cost of getting things wrong – particularly around unfair dismissal and wage compliance – continues to rise.
“As wage theft has become a criminal offence, unintentional underpayments have much more dire consequences for small businesses now. We urge business owners to take this opportunity and review their internal systems and processes. With new regulations coming into effect, employers need to act cautiously, stay informed, and make sure every part of their operation is compliant.”
What Employers Need to Do
Employers are encouraged to:
- Update payroll systems for new wage and KiwiSaver settings
- Review employment agreements
- Communicate changes to staff, particularly young workers and trainees
- Ensure minimum wage increases are applied from the first full pay period after 1 April.
Non‑compliance may lead to arrears, penalties, or disputes.
Ashlea added that the pressure is intensifying as the end of the financial year approaches: “This EOFY period is proving to be one of the toughest we’ve seen in recent years. Businesses are making hard calls – letting staff go, restructuring, or in some cases closing their doors altogether. We’re supporting a growing number of employers navigating redundancies brought on by uncertainty and escalating costs.
“The message to business owners is clear: in this climate, compliance isn’t optional. It’s essential to protect your people, your operations, and the long‑term viability of your business.”
About Peninsula Australia
Peninsula is New Zealand and Australia’s leading workplace advisory firm for SMEs, advising more than 30,500 clients in New Zealand and Australia on workplace relations and workplace health & safety issues. Its advice line allows businesses to speak with its team of workplace relations specialists, and through onsite visits to their business.
LiveNews: https://enz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/25/investments-upcoming-minimum-wage-and-kiwisaver-changes-effective-1-april-2026/
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Emergency services at scene of crash in Wellington
March 25, 2026
Source: Radio New Zealand
A police car seen behind a cordon as officers attend an incident. RNZ
Emergency services are at the scene of a crash in Mākara, a rural Wellington suburb near Karori.
The police say they were called just after 8am on Wednesday.
They can’t yet say how many vehicles were involved or if people are injured.
Wellington Free Ambulance says it’s responded, but it’s referred inquiries to police due to the nature of the incident.
Makara Village cattery owner Cody Stephens says he saw police cars and a fire engine fly past his property this morning, heading towards the beach.
Google Maps
More to come…
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/25/emergency-services-at-scene-of-crash-in-wellington/
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Economy – 1970s-style stagflation could hit global economy: deVere CEO
March 25, 2026
March 25 2026 – Households, businesses and investors should prepare for 1970’s-style global stagflation, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organisations.
Nigel Green of deVere Group is speaking out after private sector output in the euro zone sank to a 10-month low in March, amid mounting evidence of the impact the Iran conflict is having on the global economy.
He says: “The figures show the severe impact the Iran war is already having on the euro zone economy.
“But, like in the 1970s, stagflation could become a widespread global phenomenon characterised by high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment, heavily driven by oil price shocks.
“Back then it hit most developed economies, including the US, Canada, Western Europe, and Japan, largely ending the post-war economic expansion, and it looks like a spectre that may be looming once again.”
Recent flash PMI data underscores the shift. Euro zone business activity has slowed sharply, with the headline index hovering just above the contraction threshold at 50.5, down from 51.9 the previous month.
Cost pressures are accelerating at the fastest pace in more than three years as energy prices surge and supply chains tighten.
“Oil and gas prices are feeding directly into production costs, transport, and ultimately consumer prices. At the same time, demand is weakening.
“This combination is toxic. Growth is fading just as inflation is being reignited. Central banks have very limited room to respond effectively,” explains the deVere CEO.
Energy markets have tightened rapidly since the escalation of tensions involving Iran, with crude prices pushing higher and shipping disruptions adding further strain.
“Europe and Asia remain particularly exposed due to its reliance on imported energy, leaving businesses vulnerable to sustained price volatility.”
He continues: “Investors need to recognise that traditional assumptions are breaking down. Bonds may not offer the same protection if inflation remains elevated. Equities face margin pressure as input costs rise and consumers pull back.
“Cash loses value in real terms in an inflationary environment. Standing still is not a strategy.”
The European Central Bank has already signalled weaker growth expectations for 2026, projecting sub-1% expansion, while inflation forecasts risk drifting higher if energy prices remain elevated.
Surveys indicate declining business confidence and softer hiring intentions, reinforcing concerns that the slowdown is gaining traction.
“Preparation is essential. Portfolios must be structured for resilience, not optimism. Investors should be increasing exposure to assets that historically perform in inflationary periods, including commodities, energy producers, and selective real assets.
“In terms of equities, the focus must shift to sectors with pricing power and strong balance sheets. Companies able to pass on higher costs without destroying demand will outperform.”
Currency markets are also likely to reflect the divergence in economic performance and policy responses.
Risk-sensitive currencies could come under pressure, while volatility across foreign exchange markets is expected to increase.
Nigel Green comments: “Diversification across currencies, geographies, asset classes and sectors becomes more important in this environment. Overconcentration in any single one increases vulnerability.”
Geopolitical risk now sits at the centre of the economic outlook. Prolonged conflict in the Middle East would sustain pressure on energy markets, while any escalation could trigger further supply disruptions.
Duration matters. A short-lived shock is manageable. A prolonged period of elevated energy prices changes the entire economic trajectory.
Policy makers are already facing difficult trade-offs. Raising rates to control inflation risks deepening the slowdown. Cutting rates to support growth risks fuelling further inflation. “Clearly, neither path is straightforward,” notes the CEO.
Nigel Green concludes: “Complacency is the biggest risk. Stagflation is not a theoretical scenario; the early signals are already visible in the data.
“Investors who act decisively, diversify intelligently, and prioritise real returns over nominal gains will be best positioned to protect and grow wealth in the period ahead.”
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of offices around the world, more than 80,000 clients, and $14bn under advisement.
LiveNews: https://livenews.co.nz/2026/03/25/economy-1970s-style-stagflation-could-hit-global-economy-devere-ceo/
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Employee confidence rises but pessimists still outweigh optimists index shows
March 25, 2026
Source: Radio New Zealand
Regional confidence was led by Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay, Canterbury and Southland. 123rf
Employment confidence has risen to a two-year high as people’s perceptions about job availability improved.
The Westpac-McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose 1.8 points to 95.6 in the March quarter. However, a reading below 100 means pessimists still outweigh optimists.
Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said perceptions about job availability – a measure closely related to the unemployment rate – continued to improve this quarter.
“The survey results, taken on their own, would be consistent with the unemployment rate having reached its peak, and perhaps even begun falling, in the early part of this year,” Gordon said.
He said recent evidence also pointed to a pick-up in businesses’ hiring intentions as the economy started to get back on its feet.
However, the survey found households were still cautious about current and future pay rises, and about job security over the year ahead.
Confidence was highest among private-sector employees, rising 7.5 points to 103.5, according to Imogen Rendall, Market Research Director at McDermott Miller.
“In contrast, public sector employees’ confidence dipped slightly by 1.2 points to 95.6,” Rendall said.
Regional confidence was led by Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay, Canterbury and Southland.
Confidence in Auckland and Wellington remained subdued, although the capital posted a sharp rise from 80.5 to 90.8.
Gordon cautioned that the survey period – 1 to 12 March – was during the early days of the Iran conflict, when households and employers may not yet have been aware of its full economic consequences.
“As such, it’s unclear whether this confidence will be maintained in the months ahead, in what is an uncertain and rapidly evolving situation,” he said.
The survey was carried out in early March with a sample size of 1550, and had a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
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– Published by EveningReport.nz and AsiaPacificReport.nz, see: MIL OSI in partnership with Radio New Zealand
LiveNews: https://nz.mil-osi.com/2026/03/25/employee-confidence-rises-but-pessimists-still-outweigh-optimists-index-shows/
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